{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1674dc67-1141-4806-b804-765fc7e84922", "symbol": "AXLM", "name": "21Shares Stellar ETP", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.293, "architecture_energy": 24.229, "architecture_maturity": 23.088, "architecture_confidence": 70.964, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.07, "rotation_up": 17.61, "upward_expansion": 16.64, "deceleration": 65.67, "rotation_down": 58.43, "downward_expansion": 39.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.769333, 8.197691, 8.172671, 8.044469 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.232, "trend_reference": 8.0467, "distance_from_trend": -0.101246, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.686478, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.253392, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.747995, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.047795, "excess_performance": -0.130678, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101246, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098042, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.253392, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016147, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.39748, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047528, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047795, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.668567, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12883, "relative_activity": 2.217746, "balance": 0.668567, "dry_up": 1.18182, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139934, "annualized_volatility": 0.728164, "from_high_reference": -0.656845, "from_low_reference": 0.110054 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.0467, "fair_value_reference": 9.686478, "structural_low": 6.515, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.039143, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.102009, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 3.644707, "worst_return": -0.234864, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.053237, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.11875, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.320903, "worst_return": -0.20125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.068885, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.190016, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.275557, "worst_return": -0.193594, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.105109, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.073325, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.18769, "worst_return": 0.022527, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.154968, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.152757, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.332406, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.244528, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.269174, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188958, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042345, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128978, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.217603, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107601, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.409123, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108553, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098479, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.694, "volume": 448, "typical_volume": 3706.9, "trend": 5.021267, "fair_value": 9.685264, "relative_strength": 17.286166, "stage": 1, "regime": 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"relative_strength": -35.694895, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.287573, "energy": 6.636607, "activity_lines": [ 8.4212, 8.616709, 8.2797, 8.138422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.702, "volume": 680, "typical_volume": 5621.05, "trend": 8.160167, "fair_value": 9.683715, "relative_strength": -36.834781, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.847935, "energy": 14.124292, "activity_lines": [ 8.1612, 8.459418, 8.249157, 8.104351 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.232, "volume": 12883, "typical_volume": 5809.05, "trend": 8.0467, "fair_value": 9.686478, "relative_strength": -39.747995, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.292964, "energy": 24.228783, "activity_lines": [ 7.769333, 8.197691, 8.172671, 8.044469 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }