{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16755b99-c172-4e39-84a6-ee7d8cb82d7d", "symbol": "002797", "name": "First Capital Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.787, "architecture_energy": 29.55, "architecture_maturity": 40.025, "architecture_confidence": 62.763, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.98, "rotation_up": 24.44, "upward_expansion": 15.35, "deceleration": 63.77, "rotation_down": 36.36, "downward_expansion": 63.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.513932, 6.488051, 6.724153, 6.897982 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.56, "trend_reference": 7.046498, "distance_from_trend": -0.069041, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.67342, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.016996, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.529644, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.053391, "excess_performance": -0.060791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069041, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026951, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.016996, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202813, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125296, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008436, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053391, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.187491, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 276197432, "relative_activity": 0.549131, "balance": 0.187491, "dry_up": 0.54618, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070341, "annualized_volatility": 0.301017, "from_high_reference": -0.24325, "from_low_reference": 0.080242 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.046498, "fair_value_reference": 6.67342, "structural_low": 6.072712, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.009009, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.005019, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.36537, "worst_return": -0.067606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.063667, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.057296, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.424959, "worst_return": -0.106952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.005553, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.051957, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.604085, "worst_return": -0.075646, "sufficient": true }, { 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6.656038, "relative_strength": -10.992643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.745449, "energy": 40.146479, "activity_lines": [ 6.494197, 6.529775, 6.884842, 7.008078 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.38, "volume": 324012268, "typical_volume": 578508423.05, "trend": 7.070498, "fair_value": 6.66125, "relative_strength": -12.937816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.149646, "energy": 39.198896, "activity_lines": [ 6.469207, 6.476594, 6.814248, 6.962325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.57, "volume": 227345186, "typical_volume": 539701391.9, "trend": 7.056831, "fair_value": 6.667367, "relative_strength": -8.377538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.81045, "energy": 33.472167, "activity_lines": [ 6.498274, 6.477595, 6.767367, 6.930035 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.56, "volume": 276197432, "typical_volume": 502971904.65, "trend": 7.046498, "fair_value": 6.67342, "relative_strength": -12.529644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.786784, "energy": 29.550485, "activity_lines": [ 6.513932, 6.488051, 6.724153, 6.897982 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }