{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16773bf0-0504-4ace-8d73-ea7402a32925", "symbol": "XEMD", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Emerging Markets UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.369, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.568, "architecture_energy": 17.806, "architecture_maturity": 64.896, "architecture_confidence": 85.344, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.57, "rotation_up": 16.57, "upward_expansion": 45.52, "deceleration": 87.94, "rotation_down": 41.93, "downward_expansion": 30.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.655733, 11.827382, 11.850021, 11.60527 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.841, "trend_reference": 11.291081, "distance_from_trend": 0.048704, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.356579, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.416967, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.147552, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.105524, "excess_performance": 0.054288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048704, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070602, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.416967, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119551, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041476, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105524, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.81136, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 375211, "relative_activity": 1.765864, "balance": 0.81136, "dry_up": 1.269936, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044716, "annualized_volatility": 0.256225, "from_high_reference": -0.065578, "from_low_reference": 0.359802 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.291081, "fair_value_reference": 8.356579, "structural_low": 9.728004, "invalidation": "A 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"energy": 23.071548, "activity_lines": [ 11.9222, 12.036218, 11.805706, 11.517053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.539, "volume": 162990, "typical_volume": 199244.6, "trend": 11.184535, "fair_value": 8.291947, "relative_strength": 3.532491, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.679642, "energy": 22.36742, "activity_lines": [ 11.739067, 11.944473, 11.817163, 11.543774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.533, "volume": 297875, "typical_volume": 198632.75, "trend": 11.236271, "fair_value": 8.32259, "relative_strength": 1.985959, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.431566, "energy": 20.930487, "activity_lines": [ 11.625867, 11.854873, 11.822082, 11.566256 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.841, "volume": 375211, "typical_volume": 212480.15, "trend": 11.291081, "fair_value": 8.356579, "relative_strength": 4.147552, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.567805, "energy": 17.806118, "activity_lines": [ 11.655733, 11.827382, 11.850021, 11.60527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }