{ "ticker": { "uuid": "167afbb8-0c65-4df8-b027-c5dec683c096", "symbol": "PSDL", "name": "Phoenix Spree Deutschland Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.232, "architecture_energy": 72.383, "architecture_maturity": 14.354, "architecture_confidence": 87.591, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.86, "rotation_up": 10.62, "upward_expansion": 16.37, "deceleration": 37.44, "rotation_down": 76.33, "downward_expansion": 94.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 160.466667, 162.618182, 166.066667, 167.460215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 160.0, "trend_reference": 169.208333, "distance_from_trend": -0.05442, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 164.967949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.030115, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.956621, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.067055, "excess_performance": -0.118291, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05442, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005096, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.030115, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065765, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119566, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089557, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067055, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.043102, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 268014, "relative_activity": 1.406175, "balance": 0.043102, "dry_up": 0.900749, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032981, "annualized_volatility": 0.121937, "from_high_reference": -0.113573, "from_low_reference": 0.012658 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 169.208333, "fair_value_reference": 164.967949, "structural_low": 158.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.017641, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.007359, "regime_survival": 0.892857, "best_return": 0.09319, "worst_return": -0.227083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.059283, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.099291, "worst_return": -0.2603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.135311, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.106261, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.195035, "worst_return": -0.289104, "sufficient": true }, 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"2026-06-26", "close": 167.0, "volume": 7652, "typical_volume": 244907.8, "trend": 170.641667, "fair_value": 165.955128, "relative_strength": -6.819259, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.80661, "energy": 21.157226, "activity_lines": [ 169.066667, 170.472727, 170.561905, 170.772043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 165.0, "volume": 63623, "typical_volume": 224906.8, "trend": 170.575, "fair_value": 165.871795, "relative_strength": -9.070341, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.198124, "energy": 45.682534, "activity_lines": [ 167.466667, 169.236364, 169.99881, 170.408065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 163.0, "volume": 72531, "typical_volume": 198592.2, "trend": 170.408333, "fair_value": 165.730769, "relative_strength": -8.343127, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.918465, "energy": 58.732752, "activity_lines": [ 165.666667, 167.836364, 169.278571, 169.919355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 162.0, "volume": 130380, "typical_volume": 187795.95, "trend": 170.208333, "fair_value": 165.522436, "relative_strength": -9.487742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.461287, "energy": 64.243409, "activity_lines": [ 164.0, 166.490909, 168.519048, 169.376882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 160.0, "volume": 158313, "typical_volume": 190724.2, "trend": 169.891667, "fair_value": 165.358974, "relative_strength": -11.397531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.317092, "energy": 71.846985, "activity_lines": [ 162.266667, 164.981818, 167.635714, 168.71828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 160.0, "volume": 130017, "typical_volume": 188995.2, "trend": 169.608333, "fair_value": 165.108974, "relative_strength": -12.118378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.502559, "energy": 73.015549, "activity_lines": [ 161.133333, 163.690909, 166.828571, 168.080108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 160.0, "volume": 268014, "typical_volume": 190597.95, "trend": 169.208333, "fair_value": 164.967949, "relative_strength": -11.956621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.231709, "energy": 72.383398, "activity_lines": [ 160.466667, 162.618182, 166.066667, 167.460215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }