{ "ticker": { "uuid": "167db953-db79-4778-81a6-dfefe0080537", "symbol": "TSC", "name": "Thai Steel Cable Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.011, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.227, "architecture_energy": 79.995, "architecture_maturity": 30.05, "architecture_confidence": 74.706, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 70.18, "upward_expansion": 95.39, "deceleration": 42.71, "rotation_down": 15.92, "downward_expansion": 19.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.206667, 15.090909, 14.865391, 14.672619 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.2, "trend_reference": 14.467515, "distance_from_trend": 0.05063, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.584218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207862, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.696978, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.099749, "excess_performance": -0.092576, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05063, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028268, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207862, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004015, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05697, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013259, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099749, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.631994, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 189400, "relative_activity": 1.78108, "balance": 0.631994, "dry_up": 1.496144, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017139, "annualized_volatility": 0.112046, "from_high_reference": -0.012987, "from_low_reference": 0.275141 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.467515, "fair_value_reference": 12.584218, "structural_low": 13.724, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.006623, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": 0.008912, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.09396, "worst_return": -0.07971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.019082, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.003238, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.091223, "worst_return": -0.100625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009492, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.060433, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.160049, "worst_return": -0.058804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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243700, "typical_volume": 98285.0, "trend": 14.405701, "fair_value": 12.524594, "relative_strength": -7.569761, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.947361, "energy": 80.632455, "activity_lines": [ 15.1, 14.958182, 14.732083, 14.565977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.3, "volume": 69300, "typical_volume": 98260.0, "trend": 14.441355, "fair_value": 12.554979, "relative_strength": -5.844181, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.933858, "energy": 83.830091, "activity_lines": [ 15.186667, 15.041818, 14.806787, 14.623674 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.2, "volume": 189400, "typical_volume": 106340.0, "trend": 14.467515, "fair_value": 12.584218, "relative_strength": -5.696978, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.227393, "energy": 79.994921, "activity_lines": [ 15.206667, 15.090909, 14.865391, 14.672619 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }