{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16812bb8-fcef-4a1c-99b1-2bfa995fa4f2", "symbol": "2560", "name": "Anhui Conch Material Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-28", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 50.812, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.702, "architecture_energy": 14.095, "architecture_maturity": 66.704, "architecture_confidence": 57.765, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.89, "rotation_up": 33.88, "upward_expansion": 19.95, "deceleration": 44.0, "rotation_down": 18.69, "downward_expansion": 53.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.47, 1.454273, 1.457927, 1.479753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.51, "trend_reference": 1.509629, "distance_from_trend": 0.000245, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.500766, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006153, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.722773, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.082193, "excess_performance": -0.042924, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000245, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018381, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006153, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046592, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017228, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057245, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082193, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.941358, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40000, "relative_activity": 0.181283, "balance": 0.941358, "dry_up": 0.316111, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03515, "annualized_volatility": 0.190059, "from_high_reference": -0.180211, "from_low_reference": 0.094203 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.509629, "fair_value_reference": 1.500766, "structural_low": 1.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.006897, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.029476, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.006897, "worst_return": -0.006897, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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30.632893, "activity_lines": [ 1.436333, 1.431818, 1.462744, 1.487154 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 1.44, "volume": 53000, "typical_volume": 272850.05, "trend": 1.511036, "fair_value": 1.501023, "relative_strength": -5.532433, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.625234, "energy": 29.640395, "activity_lines": [ 1.438667, 1.433, 1.457644, 1.482418 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 1.47, "volume": 124000, "typical_volume": 239200.05, "trend": 1.510262, "fair_value": 1.500658, "relative_strength": -6.257218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.231955, "energy": 22.759828, "activity_lines": [ 1.448333, 1.440182, 1.455613, 1.47977 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 1.51, "volume": 40000, "typical_volume": 220650.05, "trend": 1.509629, "fair_value": 1.500766, "relative_strength": -1.722773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.702403, "energy": 14.095415, "activity_lines": [ 1.47, 1.454273, 1.457927, 1.479753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }