{ "ticker": { "uuid": "168491b4-2b04-4199-bc62-ef156d214e3c", "symbol": "GSOV", "name": "Franklin Sustainable Euro Green Sovereign UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 51.058, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.11, "architecture_energy": 26.25, "architecture_maturity": 6.906, "architecture_confidence": 61.778, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.11, "rotation_up": 16.96, "upward_expansion": 8.53, "deceleration": 55.78, "rotation_down": 57.69, "downward_expansion": 45.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.127667, 27.217636, 27.235619, 27.228247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.195, "trend_reference": 27.231833, "distance_from_trend": -0.001353, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.094965, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.003692, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.503847, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002567, "excess_performance": -0.173459, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001353, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001489, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.003692, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001324, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145038, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023517, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002567, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.818099, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2915, "relative_activity": 0.993558, "balance": 0.818099, "dry_up": 0.675381, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008542, "annualized_volatility": 0.046515, "from_high_reference": -0.013244, "from_low_reference": 0.014171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.231833, "fair_value_reference": 27.094965, "structural_low": 26.815001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.001852, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.008813, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.012696, "worst_return": -0.010197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 9.3e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053333, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.001662, "worst_return": -0.001473, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.000189, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.112408, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.002586, "worst_return": -0.002208, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.007019, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.221812, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.007019, "worst_return": 0.007019, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.008127, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006393, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008066, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005348, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00368, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012287, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004417, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003502, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011232, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013072, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00295, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-12-01", "close": 26.165001, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-08", "close": 26.165001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-15", "close": 26.924999, "volume": 2588, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": 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4410.1, "trend": 27.230666, "fair_value": 27.094855, "relative_strength": -12.800433, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.735748, "energy": 15.136987, "activity_lines": [ 27.314, 27.328545, 27.267286, 27.253484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.115, "volume": 2804, "typical_volume": 2854.65, "trend": 27.230666, "fair_value": 27.095, "relative_strength": -12.470617, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.121526, "energy": 11.52189, "activity_lines": [ 27.229333, 27.295727, 27.257524, 27.246021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.99, "volume": 2027, "typical_volume": 2865.45, "trend": 27.229833, "fair_value": 27.09425, "relative_strength": -13.044805, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.943382, "energy": 27.597263, "activity_lines": [ 27.126, 27.235909, 27.236643, 27.230494 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.195, "volume": 2915, "typical_volume": 2933.9, "trend": 27.231833, "fair_value": 27.094965, "relative_strength": -14.503847, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.109799, "energy": 26.250481, "activity_lines": [ 27.127667, 27.217636, 27.235619, 27.228247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }