{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "168540b9-0ea8-442d-a06a-914bb51b0638",
    "symbol": "EMMUSC",
    "name": "UBS Core MSCI EM UCITS ETF USD acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 69.703,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 25.534,
    "architecture_energy": 24.464,
    "architecture_maturity": 65.386,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.243,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 54.6,
        "rotation_up": 18.27,
        "upward_expansion": 52.49,
        "deceleration": 93.99,
        "rotation_down": 35.63,
        "downward_expansion": 18.49
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        15.778,
        16.033164,
        15.976457,
        15.596422
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 15.924,
    "trend_reference": 15.096267,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.05483,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 11.561163,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.37737,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -2.345554,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.137104,
    "excess_performance": -0.033788,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.05483,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.078793,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.37737,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.082404,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023456,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.126791,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.137104,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.831374,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 277424,
      "relative_activity": 0.984718,
      "balance": 0.831374,
      "dry_up": 1.531885,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.042906,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.22709,
      "from_high_reference": -0.072784,
      "from_low_reference": 0.375605
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 15.096267,
      "fair_value_reference": 11.561163,
      "structural_low": 13.2,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.008992,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.016411,
        "regime_survival": 0.555556,
        "best_return": 0.129331,
        "worst_return": -0.027721,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.102257,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.036312,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.23641,
        "worst_return": -0.009198,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.001271,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.03187,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.287663,
        "worst_return": -0.00222,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.084177,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.14447,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.133466,
        "worst_return": 0.034887,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-02-16",
        "end": "2024-08-16",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.064741,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-23",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.006214,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.023466,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.02179,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.040762,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.021508,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.103753,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.041114,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.079371,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.062549,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.020999,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": 0.010663,
        "active": true
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 219517,
        "typical_volume": 296984.75,
        "trend": 14.839067,
        "fair_value": 11.440721,
        "relative_strength": -1.345699,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.629407,
        "energy": 36.838026,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 270572.55,
        "trend": 14.9388,
        "fair_value": 11.479272,
        "relative_strength": 0.393493,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.559587,
        "energy": 23.051231,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.983734,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 15.596,
        "volume": 711069,
        "typical_volume": 285412.3,
        "trend": 15.017333,
        "fair_value": 11.518464,
        "relative_strength": -1.415681,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 28.649184,
        "energy": 24.245362,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.794133,
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          15.537927
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 15.924,
        "volume": 277424,
        "typical_volume": 281729.5,
        "trend": 15.096267,
        "fair_value": 11.561163,
        "relative_strength": -2.345554,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 25.533865,
        "energy": 24.464359,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.778,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}