{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1687a8ed-2597-4438-91b9-a6a6164100e5", "symbol": "002682", "name": "Longzhou Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.482, "architecture_energy": 61.191, "architecture_maturity": 84.215, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 26.71, "upward_expansion": 11.14, "deceleration": 60.89, "rotation_down": 55.48, "downward_expansion": 84.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.210667, 4.284909, 4.730571, 5.124796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.41, "trend_reference": 5.735667, "distance_from_trend": -0.231127, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.986026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.115528, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.447056, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.363636, "excess_performance": -0.371036, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.231127, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144441, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.115528, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.3855, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.264471, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150011, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.363636, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.332087, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89377149, "relative_activity": 1.088785, "balance": 0.332087, "dry_up": 1.348331, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101518, "annualized_volatility": 0.379583, "from_high_reference": -0.630653, "from_low_reference": 0.218232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.735667, "fair_value_reference": 4.986026, "structural_low": 3.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.009009, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.018351, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.252604, "worst_return": -0.164875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.064896, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.061123, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.215311, "worst_return": -0.029412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.13118, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.008374, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.431373, "worst_return": 0.012077, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012107, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130542, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.011136, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013544, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028302, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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-30.381917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.890063, "energy": 83.769543, "activity_lines": [ 4.266, 4.531636, 5.044619, 5.482409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.97, "volume": 136838809, "typical_volume": 92804345.9, "trend": 6.031333, "fair_value": 4.983718, "relative_strength": -31.987079, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.974167, "energy": 70.226489, "activity_lines": [ 4.142, 4.377455, 4.907714, 5.338065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.19, "volume": 97921064, "typical_volume": 86107630.7, "trend": 5.874333, "fair_value": 4.984231, "relative_strength": -26.762542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.073222, "energy": 65.679457, "activity_lines": [ 4.137333, 4.298545, 4.804333, 5.219269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.41, "volume": 89377149, "typical_volume": 82088862.95, "trend": 5.735667, "fair_value": 4.986026, "relative_strength": -26.447056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.482239, "energy": 61.190569, "activity_lines": [ 4.210667, 4.284909, 4.730571, 5.124796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }