{ "ticker": { "uuid": "168b3ddd-08db-422a-9076-91e20e195ef7", "symbol": "ALM", "name": "ALM Equity AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.83, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.578, "architecture_energy": 21.004, "architecture_maturity": 45.16, "architecture_confidence": 73.339, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.17, "rotation_up": 25.96, "upward_expansion": 18.68, "deceleration": 40.39, "rotation_down": 27.14, "downward_expansion": 55.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.233334, 46.847273, 47.816191, 48.965161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 47.5, "trend_reference": 51.243333, "distance_from_trend": -0.07305, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 153.632051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.69082, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.044928, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.136364, "excess_performance": -0.197858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07305, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022323, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.69082, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035466, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190449, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064222, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136364, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.848766, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1923, "relative_activity": 0.332354, "balance": 0.848766, "dry_up": 0.966341, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066073, "annualized_volatility": 0.286371, "from_high_reference": -0.441176, "from_low_reference": 0.109813 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.243333, "fair_value_reference": 153.632051, "structural_low": 42.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.030552, "positive_rate": 0.304348, "directional_follow_through": 0.673913, "median_excess_return": -0.044631, "regime_survival": 0.913043, "best_return": 0.388664, "worst_return": -0.242308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.153333, "positive_rate": 0.071429, "directional_follow_through": 0.928571, "median_excess_return": -0.215094, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.109677, "worst_return": -0.407407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.303205, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.372617, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": -0.049801, "worst_return": -0.494675, 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-18.735005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.767046, "energy": 24.008077, "activity_lines": [ 47.166667, 46.743637, 48.259524, 49.561075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.5, "volume": 6840, "typical_volume": 5799.75, "trend": 51.486666, "fair_value": 156.199359, "relative_strength": -20.461896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.433491, "energy": 24.873909, "activity_lines": [ 47.08, 46.685455, 47.980952, 49.222366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.5, "volume": 1923, "typical_volume": 5786.0, "trend": 51.243333, "fair_value": 153.632051, "relative_strength": -19.044928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.578178, "energy": 21.003673, "activity_lines": [ 47.233334, 46.847273, 47.816191, 48.965161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }