{ "ticker": { "uuid": "168bf85f-4372-4fc5-b433-943db7cbf899", "symbol": "300538", "name": "Shenzhen Tongyi Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.581, "architecture_energy": 70.366, "architecture_maturity": 13.787, "architecture_confidence": 79.25, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.84, "rotation_up": 8.49, "upward_expansion": 15.42, "deceleration": 37.19, "rotation_down": 70.27, "downward_expansion": 86.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.626667, 14.557273, 15.422285, 15.599871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.76, "trend_reference": 15.911011, "distance_from_trend": -0.072341, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.061616, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.081039, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.116865, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.113483, "excess_performance": -0.120882, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072341, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028183, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.081039, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111187, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121169, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045589, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.113483, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.289018, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27255201, "relative_activity": 0.965641, "balance": 1.289018, "dry_up": 1.100354, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124157, "annualized_volatility": 0.494486, "from_high_reference": -0.28642, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.911011, "fair_value_reference": 16.061616, "structural_low": 11.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.005795, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.01805, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.333238, "worst_return": -0.225949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.040146, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.007757, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.481894, "worst_return": -0.329457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012793, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.078249, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.504241, "worst_return": -0.306856, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.058637, "energy": 54.59599, "activity_lines": [ 14.867333, 15.852841, 16.050704, 16.078974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.43, "volume": 34368522, "typical_volume": 26857480.5, "trend": 16.037356, "fair_value": 16.084533, "relative_strength": -24.209389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.7887, "energy": 76.863612, "activity_lines": [ 13.747333, 15.135975, 15.717674, 15.839336 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.52, "volume": 32742770, "typical_volume": 27621589.0, "trend": 15.954349, "fair_value": 16.065716, "relative_strength": -15.758324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.300308, "energy": 74.932043, "activity_lines": [ 13.362667, 14.699454, 15.505503, 15.676926 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.76, "volume": 27255201, "typical_volume": 28224987.95, "trend": 15.911011, "fair_value": 16.061616, "relative_strength": -12.116865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.58115, "energy": 70.36594, "activity_lines": [ 13.626667, 14.557273, 15.422285, 15.599871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }