{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16977e53-5132-4cdf-993d-e0a6ee243e64", "symbol": "KXI", "name": "ISHARES TRUST GLOBAL CONSUMER STAPLES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.392, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.97, "architecture_energy": 23.876, "architecture_maturity": 11.602, "architecture_confidence": 46.629, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.21, "rotation_up": 50.0, "upward_expansion": 48.48, "deceleration": 34.18, "rotation_down": 24.12, "downward_expansion": 9.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.996, 68.726261, 68.240709, 68.14798 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 69.54, "trend_reference": 68.174742, "distance_from_trend": 0.020026, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.273417, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.134913, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.561766, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.020948, "excess_performance": -0.146573, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020026, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022806, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.134913, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01027, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065618, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011212, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020948, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.831243, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 310218, "relative_activity": 0.885072, "balance": 1.831243, "dry_up": 1.392077, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030444, "annualized_volatility": 0.14284, "from_high_reference": -0.044477, "from_low_reference": 0.127886 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.174742, "fair_value_reference": 61.273417, "structural_low": 65.000228, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.021058, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.005662, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.102116, "worst_return": -0.067177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013305, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.048019, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.03108, "worst_return": -0.079838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.031584, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.048803, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.079137, "worst_return": -0.156399, "sufficient": 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"trend": 67.703086, "fair_value": 61.043632, "relative_strength": -3.788843, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.493006, "energy": 43.191889, "activity_lines": [ 68.683333, 68.265724, 67.860119, 67.945087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 67.95, "volume": 419523, "typical_volume": 338748.8, "trend": 67.827104, "fair_value": 61.108334, "relative_strength": -4.874225, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.261825, "energy": 31.368257, "activity_lines": [ 68.529333, 68.25473, 67.897173, 67.961017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.19, "volume": 760408, "typical_volume": 352820.85, "trend": 68.004971, "fair_value": 61.190524, "relative_strength": -4.007015, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.224742, "energy": 27.528318, "activity_lines": [ 68.722, 68.467661, 68.055262, 68.048946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.54, "volume": 310218, "typical_volume": 350500.25, "trend": 68.174742, "fair_value": 61.273417, "relative_strength": -6.561766, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.970041, "energy": 23.876279, "activity_lines": [ 68.996, 68.726261, 68.240709, 68.14798 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }