{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16a2c588-52c4-4461-be34-8112281fc89d", "symbol": "PASI", "name": "Amundi PEA Chine (MSCI China) Screened UCITS ETF - Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.823, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.804, "architecture_energy": 19.504, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 44.487, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.79, "rotation_up": 43.38, "upward_expansion": 27.44, "deceleration": 41.27, "rotation_down": 15.71, "downward_expansion": 50.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.928733, 9.746236, 9.783933, 9.887677 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.14, "trend_reference": 10.102633, "distance_from_trend": 0.003699, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.316623, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088377, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.054297, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.061111, "excess_performance": -0.114422, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003699, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042444, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088377, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018265, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100543, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055412, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.46412, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63008, "relative_activity": 0.553158, "balance": 0.46412, "dry_up": 0.753918, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029995, "annualized_volatility": 0.163289, "from_high_reference": -0.146465, "from_low_reference": 0.121557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.102633, "fair_value_reference": 9.316623, "structural_low": 9.041, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.01839, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.017734, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.366726, "worst_return": -0.09724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.015948, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000882, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.239252, "worst_return": -0.11416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004015, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.101284, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.420772, "worst_return": -0.156297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"typical_volume": 123647.35, "trend": 10.166033, "fair_value": 9.303815, "relative_strength": -10.387082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.507734, "energy": 33.399417, "activity_lines": [ 9.5996, 9.576964, 9.739962, 9.895923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.032, "volume": 89203, "typical_volume": 119403.7, "trend": 10.133767, "fair_value": 9.308315, "relative_strength": -9.092922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.531615, "energy": 19.857471, "activity_lines": [ 9.773533, 9.653345, 9.755967, 9.887275 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.14, "volume": 63008, "typical_volume": 113905.95, "trend": 10.102633, "fair_value": 9.316623, "relative_strength": -10.054297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.804264, "energy": 19.504382, "activity_lines": [ 9.928733, 9.746236, 9.783933, 9.887677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }