{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16a9e7fa-ec9a-441c-87b5-b4afc3dc4e4a", "symbol": "VST", "name": "Vistra Corp.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.318, "architecture_energy": 32.614, "architecture_maturity": 18.222, "architecture_confidence": 94.606, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.96, "rotation_up": 19.7, "upward_expansion": 8.52, "deceleration": 39.67, "rotation_down": 51.69, "downward_expansion": 74.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 150.372667, 153.306731, 153.909195, 154.866985 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 140.59, "trend_reference": 156.694911, "distance_from_trend": -0.102779, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 122.70656, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145742, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.162259, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.059074, "excess_performance": -0.184699, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102779, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033204, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145742, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170935, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.261623, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003353, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059074, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.548792, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34900323, "relative_activity": 1.574677, "balance": 0.548792, "dry_up": 1.130857, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119874, "annualized_volatility": 0.456366, "from_high_reference": -0.358533, "from_low_reference": 0.061228 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 156.694911, "fair_value_reference": 122.70656, "structural_low": 132.47862, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002009, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015134, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.094286, "worst_return": -0.115007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.026994, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000558, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.075922, "worst_return": -0.157873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.05547, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.061545, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.267479, "worst_return": -0.174041, "sufficient": 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154.927221, 156.424479 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 158.86, "volume": 15932353, "typical_volume": 22071839.5, "trend": 158.276526, "fair_value": 119.526832, "relative_strength": -17.503626, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.256599, "energy": 11.282271, "activity_lines": [ 157.589323, 155.728188, 155.154677, 156.439033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 155.44, "volume": 26044363, "typical_volume": 22046068.85, "trend": 158.03961, "fair_value": 120.346512, "relative_strength": -17.386979, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.730436, "energy": 8.153729, "activity_lines": [ 157.086407, 156.055921, 155.114861, 156.256031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 163.38, "volume": 15041348, "typical_volume": 21445798.3, "trend": 158.105012, "fair_value": 121.221079, "relative_strength": -12.10257, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.003292, "energy": 7.908614, "activity_lines": [ 158.722, 157.683255, 155.917802, 156.600572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 148.19, "volume": 24268890, "typical_volume": 21555555.8, "trend": 157.545598, "fair_value": 121.993163, "relative_strength": -20.294592, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.588127, "energy": 13.064728, "activity_lines": [ 155.304, 156.11439, 155.250374, 155.960894 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 140.59, "volume": 34900323, "typical_volume": 22163475.8, "trend": 156.694911, "fair_value": 122.70656, "relative_strength": -26.162259, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.318246, "energy": 32.613811, "activity_lines": [ 150.372667, 153.306731, 153.909195, 154.866985 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }