{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16aad023-1a5c-4c6d-948c-0b39e237248d", "symbol": "TPE", "name": "TD International Equity Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.975, "architecture_energy": 55.406, "architecture_maturity": 48.22, "architecture_confidence": 78.626, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.9, "rotation_up": 56.91, "upward_expansion": 81.37, "deceleration": 61.35, "rotation_down": 24.25, "downward_expansion": 8.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.866667, 30.69474, 30.171569, 29.704293 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.48, "trend_reference": 29.228746, "distance_from_trend": 0.077022, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.584342, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.334784, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.385071, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.087821, "excess_performance": -0.0326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077022, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039856, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.334784, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042291, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003851, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023495, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087821, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.353509, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81600, "relative_activity": 0.516096, "balance": 1.353509, "dry_up": 0.77288, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025057, "annualized_volatility": 0.172478, "from_high_reference": -0.002535, "from_low_reference": 0.2569 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.228746, "fair_value_reference": 23.584342, "structural_low": 26.38283, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.007803, "positive_rate": 0.738095, "directional_follow_through": 0.738095, "median_excess_return": 0.002976, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.057599, "worst_return": -0.107837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.026071, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.006229, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.10353, "worst_return": -0.015204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.065583, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004828, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.162187, "worst_return": 0.025256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.946575, "energy": 56.966116, "activity_lines": [ 30.508535, 30.286306, 29.689787, 29.337998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.379999, "volume": 135900, "typical_volume": 189045.0, "trend": 29.01203, "fair_value": 23.422275, "relative_strength": -1.259211, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.60782, "energy": 47.777242, "activity_lines": [ 30.451999, 30.354337, 29.814841, 29.433121 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.860001, "volume": 125200, "typical_volume": 171435.0, "trend": 29.124805, "fair_value": 23.501651, "relative_strength": 0.766326, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.574068, "energy": 47.636078, "activity_lines": [ 30.575333, 30.481227, 29.972234, 29.552345 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.48, "volume": 81600, "typical_volume": 158110.0, "trend": 29.228746, "fair_value": 23.584342, "relative_strength": -0.385071, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.974898, "energy": 55.406095, "activity_lines": [ 30.866667, 30.69474, 30.171569, 29.704293 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }