{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16b0220c-6ec0-4ee1-91fa-109e9c0f73eb", "symbol": "ZGD", "name": "BMO Equal Weight Global Gold Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.635, "architecture_energy": 22.208, "architecture_maturity": 32.718, "architecture_confidence": 61.105, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.33, "rotation_up": 25.03, "upward_expansion": 16.67, "deceleration": 60.51, "rotation_down": 40.01, "downward_expansion": 66.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 273.247998, 270.948727, 279.929858, 288.461549 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 310.720001, "trend_reference": 299.417, "distance_from_trend": 0.03775, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 163.525259, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.900135, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.229491, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.015657, "excess_performance": -0.104764, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03775, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000147, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.900135, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.262979, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002295, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151884, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015657, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.295149, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22800, "relative_activity": 0.477687, "balance": 0.295149, "dry_up": 0.405405, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080107, "annualized_volatility": 0.620613, "from_high_reference": -0.192935, "from_low_reference": 0.758849 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 299.417, "fair_value_reference": 163.525259, "structural_low": 240.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.000772, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.006672, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.127156, "worst_return": -0.136929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.113851, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.074941, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.393033, "worst_return": 0.002912, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.170997, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.138094, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.39709, "worst_return": 0.000119, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-11.25191, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.548252, "energy": 56.954846, "activity_lines": [ 272.794, 277.832729, 289.667764, 297.086304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 243.410004, "volume": 33500, "typical_volume": 57785.0, "trend": 300.711633, "fair_value": 159.649511, "relative_strength": -18.175925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.219287, "energy": 68.207771, "activity_lines": [ 262.724001, 270.310366, 284.283288, 293.282859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 259.429993, "volume": 11800, "typical_volume": 53945.0, "trend": 299.385667, "fair_value": 160.830933, "relative_strength": -13.29549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.165491, "energy": 57.293103, "activity_lines": [ 259.968665, 267.048364, 281.055287, 290.619528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 254.059998, "volume": 9300, "typical_volume": 50905.0, "trend": 298.843, "fair_value": 161.997225, "relative_strength": -14.972413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.951694, "energy": 65.626333, "activity_lines": [ 256.745331, 263.536181, 277.664525, 287.695291 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 310.720001, "volume": 22800, "typical_volume": 47730.0, "trend": 299.417, "fair_value": 163.525259, "relative_strength": 0.229491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.635434, "energy": 22.208408, "activity_lines": [ 273.247998, 270.948727, 279.929858, 288.461549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }