{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16b73547-5df2-4578-9bce-1f7fa2dcc7e5", "symbol": "600116", "name": "Chongqing Three Gorges Water Conservancy and Electric Power Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.831, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.125, "architecture_energy": 25.501, "architecture_maturity": 68.556, "architecture_confidence": 67.306, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.67, "rotation_up": 39.53, "upward_expansion": 20.26, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 23.91, "downward_expansion": 56.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.373514, 6.17146, 6.294941, 6.409821 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.4, "trend_reference": 6.526972, "distance_from_trend": -0.019453, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.871212, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068578, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.813905, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.058615, "excess_performance": -0.015411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019453, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020377, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068578, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025608, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018139, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060584, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.058615, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.265181, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105947608, "relative_activity": 0.908583, "balance": 1.265181, "dry_up": 1.244016, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069312, "annualized_volatility": 0.326165, "from_high_reference": -0.123288, "from_low_reference": 0.158122 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.526972, "fair_value_reference": 6.871212, "structural_low": 5.526187, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.01724, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.366667, "median_excess_return": 0.003392, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.239105, "worst_return": -0.05824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.024664, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.000663, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.130378, "worst_return": -0.078502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.005792, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020723, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.435807, "worst_return": -0.114734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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6.542879, "fair_value": 6.929709, "relative_strength": -15.136046, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.408689, "energy": 83.668449, "activity_lines": [ 5.720627, 6.04883, 6.329563, 6.446778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.218196, "volume": 161088898, "typical_volume": 115689234.4, "trend": 6.537431, "fair_value": 6.913729, "relative_strength": -0.935645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.739109, "energy": 74.666928, "activity_lines": [ 5.853009, 6.037316, 6.300128, 6.42583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.297283, "volume": 201181252, "typical_volume": 119705096.9, "trend": 6.528002, "fair_value": 6.89764, "relative_strength": -0.696041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.674236, "energy": 40.624546, "activity_lines": [ 6.015207, 6.050032, 6.281519, 6.410337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.65, "volume": 112028497, "typical_volume": 117773355.7, "trend": 6.529999, "fair_value": 6.884613, "relative_strength": 4.574262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.664229, "energy": 16.973901, "activity_lines": [ 6.273158, 6.1342, 6.299325, 6.418208 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.4, "volume": 105947608, "typical_volume": 116607454.2, "trend": 6.526972, "fair_value": 6.871212, "relative_strength": -1.813905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.125459, "energy": 25.50095, "activity_lines": [ 6.373514, 6.17146, 6.294941, 6.409821 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }