{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16b86b94-ab1f-4f1e-877b-0ecb97994d6c", "symbol": "ZQQ", "name": "BMO Nasdaq 100 Equity Hedged to CAD Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.291, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.828, "architecture_energy": 26.241, "architecture_maturity": 68.27, "architecture_confidence": 84.67, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.77, "rotation_up": 28.99, "upward_expansion": 57.77, "deceleration": 88.19, "rotation_down": 29.99, "downward_expansion": 19.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 195.185331, 196.424362, 195.821428, 190.464386 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 200.720001, "trend_reference": 183.999333, "distance_from_trend": 0.090874, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 151.172833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.327752, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.901213, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.172978, "excess_performance": 0.052557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090874, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037488, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.327752, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048271, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009012, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03931, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172978, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.682109, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 147700, "relative_activity": 0.621254, "balance": 1.682109, "dry_up": 1.088561, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039427, "annualized_volatility": 0.210545, "from_high_reference": -0.030338, "from_low_reference": 0.2923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 183.999333, "fair_value_reference": 151.172833, "structural_low": 155.320007, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.006622, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.02294, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.102447, "worst_return": -0.112978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.069436, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.029348, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.137204, "worst_return": -0.083717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.143912, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.030367, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.19743, "worst_return": -0.036285, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.176832, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.039907, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.310955, "worst_return": -0.264006, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055513, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087816, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026147, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022711, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098134, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115652, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065474, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.074611, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035279, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 193.419998, "volume": 324200, "typical_volume": 240510.0, "trend": 182.249461, "fair_value": 149.581544, "relative_strength": -2.061459, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.626039, "energy": 34.357085, "activity_lines": [ 197.766666, 198.915272, 194.040333, 188.257492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 190.119995, "volume": 206700, "typical_volume": 236895.0, "trend": 182.543666, "fair_value": 150.067582, "relative_strength": -3.807034, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.154413, "energy": 24.560164, "activity_lines": [ 194.823331, 197.230908, 194.368761, 188.765268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 191.339996, "volume": 356600, "typical_volume": 242455.0, "trend": 183.179999, "fair_value": 150.584206, "relative_strength": -2.610594, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.429815, "energy": 22.093245, "activity_lines": [ 193.278663, 195.897998, 194.708523, 189.332773 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 200.720001, "volume": 147700, "typical_volume": 237745.0, "trend": 183.999333, "fair_value": 151.172833, "relative_strength": -0.901213, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.828015, "energy": 26.24097, "activity_lines": [ 195.185331, 196.424362, 195.821428, 190.464386 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }