{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16c67020-44dd-419f-88e4-3b5694f579bf", "symbol": "HMCA", "name": "HSBC MSCI CHINA A UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.758, "architecture_energy": 22.893, "architecture_maturity": 62.335, "architecture_confidence": 78.135, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.8, "rotation_up": 14.79, "upward_expansion": 41.55, "deceleration": 87.99, "rotation_down": 47.35, "downward_expansion": 35.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.8864, 11.050109, 11.079153, 10.975999 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.022, "trend_reference": 10.841037, "distance_from_trend": 0.016692, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.049227, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218005, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.695447, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.05659, "excess_performance": -0.114302, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016692, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030573, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218005, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042645, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096954, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096625, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.05659, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.248136, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12484, "relative_activity": 0.934082, "balance": 1.248136, "dry_up": 1.022391, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031308, "annualized_volatility": 0.176174, "from_high_reference": -0.04687, "from_low_reference": 0.237807 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.841037, "fair_value_reference": 9.049227, "structural_low": 10.037988, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.02577, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.008007, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.071799, "worst_return": -0.051666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.097282, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.095971, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08389, "worst_return": -0.124605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.022787, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.119284, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.138087, "worst_return": -0.069454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021979, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.060816, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010925, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118052, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.046565, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": 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11.4432, 11.345455, 11.130936, 10.975373 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.58, "volume": 7595, "typical_volume": 13411.4, "trend": 10.79361, "fair_value": 9.00944, "relative_strength": -10.467208, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.787536, "energy": 18.78705, "activity_lines": [ 11.166133, 11.218327, 11.096446, 10.96266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.922, "volume": 27642, "typical_volume": 13624.95, "trend": 10.819119, "fair_value": 9.021831, "relative_strength": -7.381071, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.802519, "energy": 20.65971, "activity_lines": [ 11.0388, 11.163818, 11.095125, 10.970943 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.706, "volume": 6936, "typical_volume": 13139.45, "trend": 10.830523, "fair_value": 9.033146, "relative_strength": -9.748857, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.373299, "energy": 21.160373, "activity_lines": [ 10.882267, 11.074364, 11.071802, 10.963645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.022, "volume": 12484, "typical_volume": 13365.0, "trend": 10.841037, "fair_value": 9.049227, "relative_strength": -9.695447, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.75818, "energy": 22.893206, "activity_lines": [ 10.8864, 11.050109, 11.079153, 10.975999 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }