{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16cac7d9-f9e2-40f8-bab4-80eaafb9290e", "symbol": "HSRID", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy - High Yield SRI Fossil Free Fund", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.095, "architecture_energy": 27.809, "architecture_maturity": 58.083, "architecture_confidence": 73.911, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.35, "rotation_up": 32.02, "upward_expansion": 60.66, "deceleration": 85.27, "rotation_down": 30.09, "downward_expansion": 19.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.082533, 9.093018, 9.077167, 9.052866 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.114, "trend_reference": 9.035496, "distance_from_trend": 0.008688, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.528273, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.396943, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005188, "excess_performance": -0.048124, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008688, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004069, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068681, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008113, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053969, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051822, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005188, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.444444, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1219, "relative_activity": 0.377399, "balance": 0.444444, "dry_up": 0.181579, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005157, "annualized_volatility": 0.038915, "from_high_reference": -0.003934, "from_low_reference": 0.034933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.035496, "fair_value_reference": 8.528273, "structural_low": 8.80637, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007075, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.006917, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.022781, "worst_return": -0.001881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021588, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.034378, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.049153, "worst_return": 0.018655, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.037925, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.032968, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.059492, "worst_return": 0.029941, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.884342, "energy": 76.683845, "activity_lines": [ 9.122267, 9.103291, 9.057867, 9.041573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.076, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3494.05, "trend": 9.030815, "fair_value": 8.499472, "relative_strength": -1.986524, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.58468, "energy": 58.747959, "activity_lines": [ 9.108467, 9.101782, 9.063189, 9.044648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.047, "volume": 1103, "typical_volume": 3442.7, "trend": 9.032105, "fair_value": 8.508719, "relative_strength": -2.606447, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.739533, "energy": 33.692254, "activity_lines": [ 9.0866, 9.094382, 9.065737, 9.045692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.063, "volume": 24, "typical_volume": 3443.9, "trend": 9.033703, "fair_value": 8.518327, "relative_strength": -3.829323, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.979148, "energy": 23.383533, "activity_lines": [ 9.074533, 9.089436, 9.069424, 9.047685 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.114, "volume": 1219, "typical_volume": 3230.0, "trend": 9.035496, "fair_value": 8.528273, "relative_strength": -5.396943, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.094621, "energy": 27.808681, "activity_lines": [ 9.082533, 9.093018, 9.077167, 9.052866 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }