{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16cd01b9-703f-4271-8fd4-5fab814e2fbc", "symbol": "ROAM", "name": "LATTICE STRATEGIES TR HARTFORD MULTIFACTOR EMERGING MARKTS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.241, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.054, "architecture_energy": 15.364, "architecture_maturity": 28.14, "architecture_confidence": 84.573, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.45, "rotation_up": 24.0, "upward_expansion": 46.92, "deceleration": 84.21, "rotation_down": 30.59, "downward_expansion": 24.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.557347, 34.875305, 34.895946, 34.298981 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 35.413, "trend_reference": 33.47462, "distance_from_trend": 0.057906, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.127809, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.409315, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.547199, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.114317, "excess_performance": -0.011308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057906, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065847, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.409315, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075638, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015472, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080318, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114317, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.932404, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28875, "relative_activity": 0.206077, "balance": 0.932404, "dry_up": 0.429137, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057953, "annualized_volatility": 0.239656, "from_high_reference": -0.05347, "from_low_reference": 0.350295 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.47462, "fair_value_reference": 25.127809, "structural_low": 30.17, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004165, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.009186, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.035501, "worst_return": -0.044624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.046202, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.019108, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.09438, "worst_return": -0.061622, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.169088, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.013865, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.219183, "worst_return": -0.050854, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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67489, "typical_volume": 143756.25, "trend": 33.156603, "fair_value": 24.931847, "relative_strength": 3.251851, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.735827, "energy": 18.120035, "activity_lines": [ 34.643267, 35.129163, 34.803106, 34.124953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.7363, "volume": 87310, "typical_volume": 142663.7, "trend": 33.295256, "fair_value": 25.023451, "relative_strength": 0.304514, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.458957, "energy": 15.385249, "activity_lines": [ 34.2681, 34.839884, 34.776507, 34.162353 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.413, "volume": 28875, "typical_volume": 140117.3, "trend": 33.47462, "fair_value": 25.127809, "relative_strength": 1.547199, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.053914, "energy": 15.364468, "activity_lines": [ 34.557347, 34.875305, 34.895946, 34.298981 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }