{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16cd0554-f68a-44a3-b887-ccee39a62582", "symbol": "DAI", "name": "Decidr AI Industries Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -78.914, "architecture_energy": 81.968, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.644, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.88, "rotation_up": 9.57, "upward_expansion": 18.42, "deceleration": 37.26, "rotation_down": 81.78, "downward_expansion": 96.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.380667, 0.409, 0.477524, 0.482613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.35, "trend_reference": 0.482833, "distance_from_trend": -0.275112, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.556506, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.371076, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.769679, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.078947, "excess_performance": -0.142653, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.275112, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114067, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.371076, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.750749, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.417697, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.698297, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.078947, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.009165, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3628572, "relative_activity": 1.195741, "balance": 0.009165, "dry_up": 1.222148, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.176374, "annualized_volatility": 0.683015, "from_high_reference": -0.692982, "from_low_reference": 0.129032 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.482833, "fair_value_reference": 0.556506, "structural_low": 0.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.15873, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.191497, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.141176, "worst_return": -0.195402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.021717, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.073257, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.294118, "worst_return": -0.396825, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.15368, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.055879, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.847059, "worst_return": -0.386667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.347059, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.26984, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.4, "worst_return": 0.294118, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035533, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050505, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029703, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.434343, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.148936, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.220859, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.325, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015873, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.113821, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.404494, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.256757, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032609, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.195402, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.089, "volume": 205253, "typical_volume": 111758.35, "trend": 0.139667, "fair_value": 0.233286, "relative_strength": -45.675979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.681057, "energy": 66.997598, 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-24.956696, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.219833, "energy": 48.886058, "activity_lines": [ 0.448333, 0.491364, 0.525667, 0.513247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.41, "volume": 7914529, "typical_volume": 3163055.4, "trend": 0.506667, "fair_value": 0.550962, "relative_strength": -29.000907, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.361484, "energy": 53.679838, "activity_lines": [ 0.433667, 0.467273, 0.515952, 0.506538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.395, "volume": 1625814, "typical_volume": 3052909.4, "trend": 0.4985, "fair_value": 0.552942, "relative_strength": -31.164466, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.352595, "energy": 56.851141, "activity_lines": [ 0.417333, 0.446182, 0.504952, 0.499333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.38, "volume": 1665903, "typical_volume": 3016744.85, "trend": 0.490667, "fair_value": 0.554833, "relative_strength": -35.015059, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.985346, "energy": 62.793646, "activity_lines": [ 0.401667, 0.428364, 0.492643, 0.491688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.35, "volume": 3628572, "typical_volume": 3034579.7, "trend": 0.482833, "fair_value": 0.556506, "relative_strength": -41.769679, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.913787, "energy": 81.968492, "activity_lines": [ 0.380667, 0.409, 0.477524, 0.482613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }