{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16d12ef6-eef2-4ff6-9382-6ff92680b3e4", "symbol": "ANRG", "name": "Anaergia Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.392, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.406, "architecture_energy": 42.983, "architecture_maturity": 11.43, "architecture_confidence": 72.663, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.72, "rotation_up": 17.55, "upward_expansion": 22.92, "deceleration": 52.63, "rotation_down": 60.44, "downward_expansion": 50.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.406667, 2.473636, 2.654857, 2.653656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.5, "trend_reference": 2.612, "distance_from_trend": -0.042879, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.284391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.946448, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.176916, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.184834, "excess_performance": 0.064413, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042879, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021909, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.946448, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.970322, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121769, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.509482, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.184834, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.295255, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 494400, "relative_activity": 0.552804, "balance": 0.295255, "dry_up": 0.713255, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106769, "annualized_volatility": 0.426456, "from_high_reference": -0.287749, "from_low_reference": 0.879699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.612, "fair_value_reference": 1.284391, "structural_low": 1.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.240909, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.310196, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.240909, "worst_return": 0.240909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.327273, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.314777, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.327273, "worst_return": 0.327273, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.20202, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.856061, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.109375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033175, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2103, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": 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3.002545, 2.820381, 2.701226 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 2.68, "volume": 62100, "typical_volume": 1080990.0, "trend": 2.573, "fair_value": 1.224968, "relative_strength": 2.101487, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.994432, "energy": 20.172067, "activity_lines": [ 2.815333, 2.944182, 2.823905, 2.708667 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 2.65, "volume": 117300, "typical_volume": 1014295.0, "trend": 2.589333, "fair_value": 1.234583, "relative_strength": 0.289679, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.581569, "energy": 19.692023, "activity_lines": [ 2.735333, 2.882909, 2.824333, 2.713634 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 2.57, "volume": 120700, "typical_volume": 971155.0, "trend": 2.603667, "fair_value": 1.243045, "relative_strength": -3.350369, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.216311, "energy": 17.049833, "activity_lines": [ 2.655333, 2.810545, 2.815381, 2.712387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.67, "volume": 42200, "typical_volume": 936300.0, "trend": 2.614333, "fair_value": 1.249904, "relative_strength": -1.007635, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.132173, "energy": 17.929769, "activity_lines": [ 2.643333, 2.765455, 2.813762, 2.716667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.46, "volume": 676200, "typical_volume": 940905.0, "trend": 2.605667, "fair_value": 1.255865, "relative_strength": -9.392449, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.330631, "energy": 27.071672, "activity_lines": [ 2.578, 2.687636, 2.789143, 2.70671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.44, "volume": 880700, "typical_volume": 945785.0, "trend": 2.603333, "fair_value": 1.261635, "relative_strength": -10.425368, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.978509, "energy": 40.250087, "activity_lines": [ 2.522667, 2.618545, 2.760619, 2.696022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.38, "volume": 642200, "typical_volume": 930310.0, "trend": 2.606, "fair_value": 1.267724, "relative_strength": -13.249324, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.752153, "energy": 46.495773, "activity_lines": [ 2.463333, 2.556, 2.725238, 2.681613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.28, "volume": 534300, "typical_volume": 920600.0, "trend": 2.607333, "fair_value": 1.275545, "relative_strength": -16.861228, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.128949, "energy": 54.537811, "activity_lines": [ 2.388667, 2.487455, 2.679619, 2.660581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.5, "volume": 494400, "typical_volume": 894350.0, "trend": 2.612, "fair_value": 1.284391, "relative_strength": -12.176916, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.406494, "energy": 42.982815, "activity_lines": [ 2.406667, 2.473636, 2.654857, 2.653656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }