{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16d51c2a-5e9a-411c-852c-1b46434e5b38", "symbol": "ANX", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Nasdaq-100 Swap ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.624, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.867, "architecture_energy": 30.822, "architecture_maturity": 69.038, "architecture_confidence": 81.904, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.54, "rotation_up": 31.57, "upward_expansion": 62.32, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 30.75, "downward_expansion": 21.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 287.913332, 290.742178, 288.329139, 279.213847 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 294.75, "trend_reference": 267.839665, "distance_from_trend": 0.100472, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 217.975064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.352219, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.338941, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.221003, "excess_performance": 0.050111, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100472, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060194, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.352219, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01744, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013389, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054635, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.221003, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.324576, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13837, "relative_activity": 1.596166, "balance": 1.324576, "dry_up": 1.380827, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033742, "annualized_volatility": 0.188451, "from_high_reference": -0.02867, "from_low_reference": 0.311807 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 267.839665, "fair_value_reference": 217.975064, "structural_low": 230.199997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.015987, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.008213, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.089291, "worst_return": -0.071635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055641, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.024869, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.167327, "worst_return": 0.016093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.167621, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.077078, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.223958, "worst_return": 0.001922, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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65.013568, "activity_lines": [ 296.82466, 294.837813, 280.72533, 271.18488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 298.149994, "volume": 8253, "typical_volume": 10517.0, "trend": 262.746332, "fair_value": 214.679743, "relative_strength": 1.725001, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.416727, "energy": 64.743984, "activity_lines": [ 297.403327, 296.153995, 283.583806, 273.582879 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 286.049988, "volume": 8219, "typical_volume": 9916.55, "trend": 264.046332, "fair_value": 215.502884, "relative_strength": -0.995599, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.34732, "energy": 51.681554, "activity_lines": [ 293.686658, 294.690175, 285.024377, 275.086341 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 285.299988, "volume": 5175, "typical_volume": 8929.75, "trend": 265.295664, "fair_value": 216.297051, "relative_strength": -1.083803, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.448715, "energy": 40.938636, "activity_lines": [ 290.216657, 293.031447, 286.181328, 276.457545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 279.700012, "volume": 20650, "typical_volume": 8252.0, "trend": 266.431665, "fair_value": 217.076602, "relative_strength": -3.621651, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.110544, "energy": 27.764724, "activity_lines": [ 286.069997, 290.402541, 286.622282, 277.386857 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 294.75, "volume": 13837, "typical_volume": 8668.9, "trend": 267.839665, "fair_value": 217.975064, "relative_strength": -1.338941, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.866594, "energy": 30.82236, "activity_lines": [ 287.913332, 290.742178, 288.329139, 279.213847 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }