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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.657, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.263, "architecture_energy": 36.574, "architecture_maturity": 15.503, "architecture_confidence": 78.639, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.68, "rotation_up": 58.63, "upward_expansion": 79.2, "deceleration": 53.06, "rotation_down": 16.78, "downward_expansion": 3.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 91.504, 91.027455, 90.27678, 89.541372 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 92.09, "trend_reference": 88.226811, "distance_from_trend": 0.043787, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 72.162212, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276153, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.137712, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.122017, "excess_performance": -0.003608, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043787, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043765, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276153, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010655, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021377, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021051, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122017, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.881242, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2863994, "relative_activity": 1.154898, "balance": 1.881242, "dry_up": 0.989578, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038296, "annualized_volatility": 0.197578, "from_high_reference": -0.025142, "from_low_reference": 0.242858 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 88.226811, "fair_value_reference": 72.162212, "structural_low": 80.626353, 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38.472314, "activity_lines": [ 90.26, 89.523878, 89.319642, 88.400584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 92.06, "volume": 2252365, "typical_volume": 2529469.0, "trend": 87.028354, "fair_value": 71.532123, "relative_strength": 1.780416, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.447759, "energy": 51.028243, "activity_lines": [ 90.986, 90.057636, 89.630609, 88.752254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 93.07, "volume": 2295065, "typical_volume": 2490774.1, "trend": 87.476987, "fair_value": 71.747787, "relative_strength": 3.419413, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.615718, "energy": 56.899299, "activity_lines": [ 91.845333, 90.724727, 90.016177, 89.142038 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 89.4, "volume": 2404664, "typical_volume": 2497877.0, "trend": 87.823331, "fair_value": 71.949647, "relative_strength": -1.686494, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.035871, "energy": 39.109221, "activity_lines": [ 91.175333, 90.626909, 90.023223, 89.266103 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 92.09, "volume": 2863994, "typical_volume": 2479866.95, "trend": 88.226811, "fair_value": 72.162212, "relative_strength": -2.137712, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.262749, "energy": 36.574373, "activity_lines": [ 91.504, 91.027455, 90.27678, 89.541372 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }