{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16dae79e-2550-4d54-acf4-649a7f695d28", "symbol": "MOAT", "name": "VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.227, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 68.33, "architecture_energy": 82.368, "architecture_maturity": 17.603, "architecture_confidence": 75.581, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.84, "rotation_up": 83.36, "upward_expansion": 66.6, "deceleration": 23.24, "rotation_down": 16.05, "downward_expansion": 24.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 1883.809985, 1854.444176, 1809.836998, 1799.354321 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1926.0, "trend_reference": 1799.933333, "distance_from_trend": 0.07004, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1678.710217, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.147309, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.743377, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.043902, "excess_performance": 0.098569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07004, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001324, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.147309, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10749, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.037434, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.185744, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043902, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.785995, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 350, "relative_activity": 0.465364, "balance": 0.785995, "dry_up": 0.317777, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012573, "annualized_volatility": 0.119657, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.130282 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1799.933333, "fair_value_reference": 1678.710217, "structural_low": 1704.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.002066, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011143, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.046004, "worst_return": -0.172041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.043517, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.100341, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.02439, "worst_return": -0.17432, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005856, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.102228, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.110105, "worst_return": -0.075938, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021566, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.001653, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002423, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018627, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024611, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.481605, "energy": 76.015777, "activity_lines": [ 1837.89065, 1817.479812, 1783.940426, 1784.994106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1891.5, "volume": 601, "typical_volume": 734.6, "trend": 1797.9, "fair_value": 1674.942229, "relative_strength": 1.700173, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 67.29451, "energy": 88.036977, "activity_lines": [ 1857.873316, 1834.384721, 1795.475617, 1791.089805 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1926.0, "volume": 350, "typical_volume": 752.1, "trend": 1799.933333, "fair_value": 1678.710217, "relative_strength": 3.743377, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 68.330197, "energy": 82.36818, "activity_lines": [ 1883.809985, 1854.444176, 1809.836998, 1799.354321 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }