{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16dc178d-9f34-4893-ac6e-e0ed4eb2f5f0", "symbol": "VIAV", "name": "Viavi Solutions Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.16, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.958, "architecture_energy": 24.797, "architecture_maturity": 34.276, "architecture_confidence": 62.672, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.28, "rotation_up": 15.46, "upward_expansion": 45.35, "deceleration": 71.27, "rotation_down": 42.36, "downward_expansion": 39.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.764, 41.100364, 44.218952, 42.556086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.14, "trend_reference": 38.554167, "distance_from_trend": 0.015195, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.724391, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.489127, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 23.415092, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.4837, "excess_performance": 0.296246, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015195, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.286053, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.489127, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.491867, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.234151, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.973549, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.4837, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.7379, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32583837, "relative_activity": 0.987478, "balance": 0.7379, "dry_up": 0.802404, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.204076, "annualized_volatility": 0.554691, "from_high_reference": -0.352308, "from_low_reference": 2.8 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.554167, "fair_value_reference": 15.724391, "structural_low": 25.55, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.052738, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.076402, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.188845, "worst_return": -0.198985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.113646, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.236696, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.034483, "worst_return": -0.211045, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.055227, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.25888, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.001957, "worst_return": -0.152401, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.061028, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.178082, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12199, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.196213, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010881, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127333, 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"trend": 35.833333, "fair_value": 15.015801, "relative_strength": 44.729057, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.903707, "energy": 19.24308, "activity_lines": [ 44.848667, 46.770364, 46.235286, 42.144839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.16, "volume": 24344585, "typical_volume": 33845235.9, "trend": 36.504667, "fair_value": 15.189135, "relative_strength": 31.505983, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.256031, "energy": 12.98722, "activity_lines": [ 42.035333, 44.958182, 45.7705, 42.294946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.52, "volume": 16651285, "typical_volume": 32551822.55, "trend": 37.2155, "fair_value": 15.373237, "relative_strength": 35.914051, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.963543, "energy": 16.970158, "activity_lines": [ 40.695333, 43.630545, 45.395, 42.489484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.95, "volume": 32328108, "typical_volume": 33154004.25, "trend": 37.842167, "fair_value": 15.540224, "relative_strength": 24.353976, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.787513, "energy": 20.410907, "activity_lines": [ 39.008667, 42.052182, 44.71931, 42.472355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.14, "volume": 32583837, "typical_volume": 32997022.35, "trend": 38.554167, "fair_value": 15.724391, "relative_strength": 23.415092, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.958258, "energy": 24.797454, "activity_lines": [ 38.764, 41.100364, 44.218952, 42.556086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }