{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16e267b3-0991-4992-b8d2-10f3558b841b", "symbol": "UMIDA-B", "name": "Umida Group AB ser. B", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.555, "architecture_energy": 15.125, "architecture_maturity": 20.361, "architecture_confidence": 62.751, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.5, "rotation_up": 29.54, "upward_expansion": 20.73, "deceleration": 36.9, "rotation_down": 27.79, "downward_expansion": 52.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.806933, 0.796982, 0.803676, 0.8192 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.764, "trend_reference": 0.8404, "distance_from_trend": -0.090909, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.267244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.397117, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.110161, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.119816, "excess_performance": -0.18131, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090909, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108108, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.397117, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018734, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.351102, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002329, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.119816, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.685841, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 292424, "relative_activity": 0.922596, "balance": 1.685841, "dry_up": 0.317647, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148913, "annualized_volatility": 0.396429, "from_high_reference": -0.575556, "from_low_reference": 0.168196 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.8404, "fair_value_reference": 1.267244, "structural_low": 0.654, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.014134, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.00552, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.650485, "worst_return": -0.223881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.057739, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.093563, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.14375, "worst_return": -0.360341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.151844, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.18264, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.59375, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.452941, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.662112, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.7, "worst_return": -0.702656, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2021-10-08", "end": "2021-12-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128773, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-12-31", "end": "2022-02-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075862, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-02-11", "end": "2022-02-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.208955, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-03-04", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.895434, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.284848, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143258, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.215805, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.14, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.217791, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.228464, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.317726, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.144351, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07056, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.19, "volume": 56538, "typical_volume": 49600.7, "trend": 2.499333, "fair_value": 5.590766, "relative_strength": -29.707108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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-27.613552, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.652333, "energy": 13.552739, "activity_lines": [ 0.8092, 0.789164, 0.811876, 0.830118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.818, "volume": 27700, "typical_volume": 321447.6, "trend": 0.857367, "fair_value": 1.285346, "relative_strength": -30.359635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.268257, "energy": 17.655121, "activity_lines": [ 0.819333, 0.793927, 0.810467, 0.826994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.822, "volume": 30220, "typical_volume": 313931.45, "trend": 0.849433, "fair_value": 1.276192, "relative_strength": -30.013187, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.058797, "energy": 17.058492, "activity_lines": [ 0.8264, 0.800182, 0.809714, 0.824712 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.764, "volume": 292424, "typical_volume": 316957.75, "trend": 0.8404, "fair_value": 1.267244, "relative_strength": -35.110161, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.555144, "energy": 15.124708, "activity_lines": [ 0.806933, 0.796982, 0.803676, 0.8192 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }