{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16ee37c1-4747-4bde-97dc-aad21712b108", "symbol": "300067", "name": "Shanghai Anoky Group Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.008, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.24, "architecture_energy": 11.555, "architecture_maturity": 9.077, "architecture_confidence": 61.394, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.17, "rotation_up": 25.76, "upward_expansion": 25.43, "deceleration": 60.93, "rotation_down": 45.71, "downward_expansion": 36.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.18, 5.161091, 5.467238, 5.427269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.58, "trend_reference": 5.373333, "distance_from_trend": 0.038462, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.690669, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.189596, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.707349, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.042991, "excess_performance": 0.035591, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038462, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025706, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.189596, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.513451, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047073, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138696, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042991, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.326171, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 392091089, "relative_activity": 1.397964, "balance": 0.326171, "dry_up": 1.232174, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119382, "annualized_volatility": 0.867175, "from_high_reference": -0.317848, "from_low_reference": 0.371007 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.373333, "fair_value_reference": 4.690669, "structural_low": 4.07, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05641, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.033866, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.678922, "worst_return": -0.146739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.303922, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.135823, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.798913, "worst_return": 0.020513, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.077299, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.104679, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.331522, "worst_return": -0.176923, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.159952, 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"red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034884, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101167, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035644, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030905, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031863, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", 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"Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.278608, "energy": 54.884154, "activity_lines": [ 4.714667, 5.036, 5.425143, 5.390946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.67, "volume": 630567488, "typical_volume": 270623908.9, "trend": 5.354, "fair_value": 4.673798, "relative_strength": 11.595195, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.183479, "energy": 34.609372, "activity_lines": [ 4.97, 5.097273, 5.452381, 5.412688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.58, "volume": 392091089, "typical_volume": 280472867.65, "trend": 5.373333, "fair_value": 4.690669, "relative_strength": 4.707349, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.239752, "energy": 11.554902, "activity_lines": [ 5.18, 5.161091, 5.467238, 5.427269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }