{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16f606cd-3e85-43eb-969f-281c73e89387", "symbol": "ZGRO", "name": "BMO Growth ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.181, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.614, "architecture_energy": 50.636, "architecture_maturity": 76.68, "architecture_confidence": 54.014, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.95, "rotation_up": 46.61, "upward_expansion": 74.31, "deceleration": 71.01, "rotation_down": 28.5, "downward_expansion": 12.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.358666, 19.32818, 19.103779, 18.795179 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.66, "trend_reference": 18.442609, "distance_from_trend": 0.06601, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.281179, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28655, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.47025, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.099854, "excess_performance": -0.020568, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06601, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032361, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28655, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011627, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024703, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002618, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099854, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.517375, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144900, "relative_activity": 0.755849, "balance": 2.517375, "dry_up": 0.974675, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020019, "annualized_volatility": 0.114084, "from_high_reference": -0.006569, "from_low_reference": 0.210497 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.442609, "fair_value_reference": 15.281179, "structural_low": 16.948471, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": 0.010417, "positive_rate": 0.680851, "directional_follow_through": 0.680851, "median_excess_return": -0.000737, "regime_survival": 0.87234, "best_return": 0.083592, "worst_return": -0.064658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.025214, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.009472, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.083071, "worst_return": -0.027127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.054104, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.001176, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.127658, "worst_return": -0.129078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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192900, "typical_volume": 204645.0, "trend": 18.27835, "fair_value": 15.139411, "relative_strength": -2.504773, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.603187, "energy": 57.302161, "activity_lines": [ 19.316288, 19.234346, 18.881083, 18.599143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.15, "volume": 146700, "typical_volume": 195675.0, "trend": 18.328319, "fair_value": 15.184801, "relative_strength": -2.583432, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.485149, "energy": 50.95746, "activity_lines": [ 19.252999, 19.239801, 18.944966, 18.655378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.219999, "volume": 262900, "typical_volume": 197055.0, "trend": 18.384773, "fair_value": 15.2316, "relative_strength": -1.679847, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.447173, "energy": 40.64372, "activity_lines": [ 19.231999, 19.247206, 19.007785, 18.712906 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.66, "volume": 144900, "typical_volume": 191705.0, "trend": 18.442609, "fair_value": 15.281179, "relative_strength": -2.47025, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.614146, "energy": 50.635559, "activity_lines": [ 19.358666, 19.32818, 19.103779, 18.795179 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }