{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16f9cdb5-d191-40c4-9842-2c0384786932", "symbol": "600409", "name": "Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.757, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.235, "architecture_energy": 17.636, "architecture_maturity": 43.805, "architecture_confidence": 66.259, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.91, "rotation_up": 28.51, "upward_expansion": 20.66, "deceleration": 42.52, "rotation_down": 30.46, "downward_expansion": 59.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.396, 6.267411, 6.453592, 6.725518 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.77, "trend_reference": 7.021306, "distance_from_trend": -0.035792, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.723674, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.182807, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.168459, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17439, "excess_performance": -0.131186, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035792, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006105, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.182807, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087548, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041685, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01951, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17439, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.383387, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 198416242, "relative_activity": 1.131728, "balance": 1.383387, "dry_up": 1.222507, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11097, "annualized_volatility": 0.57841, "from_high_reference": -0.287368, "from_low_reference": 0.265421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.021306, "fair_value_reference": 5.723674, "structural_low": 5.44, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.000755, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010806, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.351994, "worst_return": -0.190534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.008223, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.033009, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.133291, "worst_return": -0.124158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.016445, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.095171, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.082146, "worst_return": -0.220365, "sufficient": true }, 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5.710014, "relative_strength": -0.428641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.628713, "energy": 46.485584, "activity_lines": [ 5.958, 6.068554, 6.458393, 6.761622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.66, "volume": 180261823, "typical_volume": 183435610.35, "trend": 7.001972, "fair_value": 5.71674, "relative_strength": 5.564218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.846218, "energy": 32.868272, "activity_lines": [ 6.160667, 6.158338, 6.445969, 6.740484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.77, "volume": 198416242, "typical_volume": 175321559.65, "trend": 7.021306, "fair_value": 5.723674, "relative_strength": 4.168459, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.234623, "energy": 17.635816, "activity_lines": [ 6.396, 6.267411, 6.453592, 6.725518 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }