{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17152f73-cc54-4e81-8777-473ac335e0b3", "symbol": "6222", "name": "Li Hsuan Development & Construction Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 92.966, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.205, "architecture_energy": 4.46, "architecture_maturity": 21.957, "architecture_confidence": 51.692, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.53, "rotation_up": 30.81, "upward_expansion": 43.88, "deceleration": 71.41, "rotation_down": 22.15, "downward_expansion": 30.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.543333, 20.596364, 20.715, 20.624946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 20.1, "trend_reference": 20.316666, "distance_from_trend": -0.010664, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.685577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.21746, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.3537, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.066313, "excess_performance": -0.375059, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010664, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019146, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.21746, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032349, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.293537, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026771, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066313, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.255404, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70005, "relative_activity": 0.625713, "balance": 1.255404, "dry_up": 0.400821, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065633, "annualized_volatility": 0.172553, "from_high_reference": -0.148305, "from_low_reference": 0.113573 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.316666, "fair_value_reference": 25.685577, "structural_low": 18.450001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.000919, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001997, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.587209, "worst_return": -0.113333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.003289, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003306, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.077922, "worst_return": -0.171986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.006667, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.00773, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.363636, "worst_return": -0.255319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.263333, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.4308, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.214286, "worst_return": -0.372549, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075881, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060294, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.252669, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025298, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156863, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02931, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.001751, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092199, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2026-03-06", 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.48059, "energy": 7.658372, "activity_lines": [ 20.623333, 20.634545, 20.773571, 20.55215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.65, "volume": 61119, "typical_volume": 140925.85, "trend": 20.198333, "fair_value": 25.888462, "relative_strength": -24.858968, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.600564, "energy": 7.588172, "activity_lines": [ 20.626667, 20.634545, 20.765714, 20.584086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.0, "volume": 28200, "typical_volume": 119380.85, "trend": 20.268333, "fair_value": 25.771474, "relative_strength": -24.57181, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.623066, "energy": 13.126379, "activity_lines": [ 20.75, 20.697273, 20.785476, 20.635806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 20.1, "volume": 70005, "typical_volume": 111880.35, "trend": 20.316666, "fair_value": 25.685577, "relative_strength": -29.3537, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.205253, "energy": 4.459855, "activity_lines": [ 20.543333, 20.596364, 20.715, 20.624946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }