{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1717f48a-0bdf-4bbd-a9d8-f287fbb7df9a", "symbol": "2094", "name": "TSE REIT Inverse ETF", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 89.524, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.825, "architecture_energy": 13.627, "architecture_maturity": 38.8, "architecture_confidence": 75.206, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.83, "rotation_up": 22.47, "upward_expansion": 42.73, "deceleration": 82.53, "rotation_down": 36.01, "downward_expansion": 34.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 771.333333, 775.763636, 779.628571, 773.466667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 783.0, "trend_reference": 763.166667, "distance_from_trend": 0.025988, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 895.778523, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.1259, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.81823, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.063859, "excess_performance": -0.1454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025988, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017239, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.1259, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019046, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158182, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107124, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063859, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.766099, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 365295, "relative_activity": 4.532314, "balance": 0.766099, "dry_up": 2.762048, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030455, "annualized_volatility": 0.148453, "from_high_reference": -0.050909, "from_low_reference": 0.099719 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 763.166667, "fair_value_reference": 895.778523, "structural_low": 713.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.024869, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.067913, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.024869, "worst_return": 0.024869, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.21254, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003922, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018397, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008929, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": 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"stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.825459, "energy": 13.626786, "activity_lines": [ 771.333333, 775.763636, 779.628571, 773.466667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }