{ "ticker": { "uuid": "171b7c41-b4e3-486b-b77c-0f00a27cc5bf", "symbol": "QS5S", "name": "WisdomTree NASDAQ 100 5x Daily Short", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.794, "architecture_energy": 57.471, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.512, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.72, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 27.0, "deceleration": 46.89, "rotation_down": 47.19, "downward_expansion": 68.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.5223, 0.510518, 0.560093, 0.735843 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.433, "trend_reference": 0.9496, "distance_from_trend": -0.544019, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.860592, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.910916, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -67.884204, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.69646, "excess_performance": -0.747695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.544019, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238411, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.910916, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019442, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.678842, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022422, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.69646, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.106464, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 292224, "relative_activity": 0.261974, "balance": 0.106464, "dry_up": 0.331415, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.199591, "annualized_volatility": 0.973552, "from_high_reference": -0.812554, "from_low_reference": 0.021226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.9496, "fair_value_reference": 4.860592, "structural_low": 0.424, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001753, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.009949, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.141657, "worst_return": -0.378828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.293162, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.319711, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.024691, "worst_return": -0.611015, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.601411, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.652656, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.601411, "worst_return": -0.601411, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.001764, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.163396, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.343701, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090959, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.423435, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-10", "close": 16.38106, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-17", "close": 14.6125, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-24", "close": 13.6925, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] 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"typical_volume": 1115471.15, "trend": 0.9496, "fair_value": 4.860592, "relative_strength": -67.884204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.794489, "energy": 57.470748, "activity_lines": [ 0.5223, 0.510518, 0.560093, 0.735843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }