{ "ticker": { "uuid": "171b80e5-d4e0-4ac7-b885-e5de184cc2b6", "symbol": "603335", "name": "Guangdong Dcenti Auto-Parts Stock Limited Company", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.026, "architecture_energy": 31.282, "architecture_maturity": 41.255, "architecture_confidence": 41.403, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.57, "rotation_up": 16.84, "upward_expansion": 18.29, "deceleration": 65.24, "rotation_down": 62.86, "downward_expansion": 40.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.237333, 6.852364, 7.058381, 6.891161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.96, "trend_reference": 6.632, "distance_from_trend": 0.049457, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.457628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275279, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.26146, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.181664, "excess_performance": 0.224868, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049457, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065324, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275279, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110889, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.122615, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073382, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.181664, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.342151, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108337327, "relative_activity": 1.003268, "balance": 1.342151, "dry_up": 0.82284, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162798, "annualized_volatility": 0.644531, "from_high_reference": -0.286154, "from_low_reference": 0.453027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.632, "fair_value_reference": 5.457628, "structural_low": 4.83, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.027, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.000992, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.206667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.048212, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.012866, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.339093, "worst_return": -0.228018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.055547, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031192, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.191011, "worst_return": -0.405365, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.172588, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.095336, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.340045, "worst_return": -0.23994, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.010989, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.113248, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020045, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07191, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016598, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026263, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.127701, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11032, "active": false }, { "regime": 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6.585667, "fair_value": 5.464359, "relative_strength": -2.475054, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.226476, "energy": 11.370416, "activity_lines": [ 7.298, 7.542545, 7.280524, 6.979677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.53, "volume": 87887371, "typical_volume": 105978416.9, "trend": 6.578667, "fair_value": 5.457949, "relative_strength": -7.448109, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.9483, "energy": 25.043316, "activity_lines": [ 6.556, 7.174727, 7.147333, 6.91157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.89, "volume": 71844163, "typical_volume": 105742860.5, "trend": 6.587667, "fair_value": 5.453846, "relative_strength": -1.975847, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.081993, "energy": 36.076847, "activity_lines": [ 6.113333, 6.905091, 7.050857, 6.86714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.96, "volume": 108337327, "typical_volume": 107984387.7, "trend": 6.632, "fair_value": 5.457628, "relative_strength": 12.26146, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.026187, "energy": 31.282086, "activity_lines": [ 6.237333, 6.852364, 7.058381, 6.891161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }