{ "ticker": { "uuid": "171c76ca-24c9-48ac-83c9-82e2c7d5cfff", "symbol": "ZSRN", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI Emerging SRI PAB UCITS ETF EUR Capitalisation", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.662, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.352, "architecture_energy": 24.638, "architecture_maturity": 63.814, "architecture_confidence": 85.5, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.88, "rotation_up": 26.11, "upward_expansion": 57.98, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 31.76, "downward_expansion": 19.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.163066, 17.339018, 17.181515, 16.817953 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.379999, "trend_reference": 16.3936, "distance_from_trend": 0.06017, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.830923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.256604, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.745523, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.101534, "excess_performance": 0.036894, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06017, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055156, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.256604, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013319, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027455, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114312, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101534, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.865175, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34372, "relative_activity": 2.203665, "balance": 0.865175, "dry_up": 1.534718, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037895, "annualized_volatility": 0.208985, "from_high_reference": -0.048193, "from_low_reference": 0.238421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.3936, "fair_value_reference": 13.830923, "structural_low": 14.48, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.029834, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.020083, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.104542, "worst_return": -0.052762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014458, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.009101, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.235797, "worst_return": 0.003379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.044396, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.050367, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.240338, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.044396, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.241178, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.044396, "worst_return": 0.044396, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032638, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021106, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001087, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067287, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028767, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023881, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030805, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030562, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028029, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020278, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023856, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103186, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.055109, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022233, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.02, "volume": 2186, "typical_volume": 3556.9, "trend": 12.331267, "fair_value": 12.78739, "relative_strength": -8.816641, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", 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17.469467, 17.464401, 17.016353, 16.644607 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.077999, "volume": 5812, "typical_volume": 14391.2, "trend": 16.261533, "fair_value": 13.76991, "relative_strength": 6.338763, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.932441, "energy": 30.788514, "activity_lines": [ 17.276133, 17.413055, 17.073362, 16.70234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.002001, "volume": 27504, "typical_volume": 13990.9, "trend": 16.328467, "fair_value": 13.798167, "relative_strength": 3.456255, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.74983, "energy": 23.405607, "activity_lines": [ 17.134134, 17.3424, 17.114067, 16.750112 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.379999, "volume": 34372, "typical_volume": 15597.65, "trend": 16.3936, "fair_value": 13.830923, "relative_strength": 2.745523, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.351763, "energy": 24.63788, "activity_lines": [ 17.163066, 17.339018, 17.181515, 16.817953 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }