{ "ticker": { "uuid": "171d5818-7921-456e-8378-f81222b1ccf8", "symbol": "TPX-A", "name": "Molson Coors Canada Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.566, "architecture_energy": 70.662, "architecture_maturity": 18.077, "architecture_confidence": 88.574, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.94, "rotation_up": 12.41, "upward_expansion": 15.58, "deceleration": 39.61, "rotation_down": 72.3, "downward_expansion": 91.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.906666, 63.488181, 64.050798, 64.858621 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 63.0, "trend_reference": 66.383076, "distance_from_trend": -0.050963, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 73.071775, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.137834, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.365823, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.107901, "excess_performance": -0.228322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050963, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023709, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.137834, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014603, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173658, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008899, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.107901, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.5, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 300, "relative_activity": 3.333333, "balance": 0.5, "dry_up": 1.388889, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019119, "annualized_volatility": 0.338623, "from_high_reference": -0.186948, "from_low_reference": 0.031781 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.383076, "fair_value_reference": 73.071775, "structural_low": 61.059498, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.014633, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.192308, "median_excess_return": -0.004087, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.259937, "worst_return": -0.098654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.000151, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050904, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.384109, "worst_return": -0.064968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025966, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061603, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.351172, "worst_return": -0.042999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.042999, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056604, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008958, "active": 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64.338494, 65.353384 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.5, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 150.0, "trend": 66.449081, "fair_value": 73.20242, "relative_strength": -15.952159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.725219, "energy": 85.232748, "activity_lines": [ 62.899999, 63.694362, 64.145284, 65.081142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.0, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 90.0, "trend": 66.383076, "fair_value": 73.071775, "relative_strength": -17.365823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.566217, "energy": 70.662222, "activity_lines": [ 62.906666, 63.488181, 64.050798, 64.858621 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }