{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1722482d-82c3-47d3-972e-fd2f5c21dcbc", "symbol": "DMAT", "name": "Global X Disruptive Materials UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.562, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.834, "architecture_energy": 54.166, "architecture_maturity": 6.953, "architecture_confidence": 82.834, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.59, "rotation_up": 15.83, "upward_expansion": 11.71, "deceleration": 41.79, "rotation_down": 67.91, "downward_expansion": 85.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.151, 20.401818, 21.218619, 21.558645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.735001, "trend_reference": 21.997, "distance_from_trend": -0.011911, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.206776, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.529904, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.87764, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010921, "excess_performance": -0.181813, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011911, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037046, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.529904, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22613, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058776, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263361, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010921, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.440257, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2387, "relative_activity": 0.493075, "balance": 0.440257, "dry_up": 0.440297, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054414, "annualized_volatility": 0.396639, "from_high_reference": -0.178105, "from_low_reference": 0.593008 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.997, "fair_value_reference": 14.206776, "structural_low": 18.577999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.080985, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.078594, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.290848, "worst_return": 0.04866, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.266028, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.183915, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.272132, "worst_return": 0.259925, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.448133, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.288207, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.700278, "worst_return": 0.195988, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 21.728033, "fair_value": 13.897635, "relative_strength": 0.370414, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.999598, "energy": 14.453242, "activity_lines": [ 22.258666, 22.507091, 22.459781, 22.322641 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 21.32, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7045.2, "trend": 21.843967, "fair_value": 13.949327, "relative_strength": -1.510122, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.42371, "energy": 15.763904, "activity_lines": [ 21.917333, 22.253818, 22.347938, 22.296316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 21.035, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 6764.7, "trend": 21.934733, "fair_value": 13.999192, "relative_strength": -6.106071, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.800869, "energy": 42.391199, "activity_lines": [ 21.564667, 21.991454, 22.212071, 22.244125 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.834, "volume": 3075, "typical_volume": 6610.35, "trend": 21.991467, "fair_value": 14.038449, "relative_strength": -11.417279, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.745981, "energy": 65.072846, "activity_lines": [ 20.942, 21.541273, 21.970609, 22.108594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.804001, "volume": 3267, "typical_volume": 6058.55, "trend": 21.992333, "fair_value": 14.07241, "relative_strength": -15.003362, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.3837, "energy": 87.840243, "activity_lines": [ 20.091734, 20.952382, 21.646938, 21.902951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.452, "volume": 2180, "typical_volume": 5469.05, "trend": 21.9944, "fair_value": 14.111282, "relative_strength": -12.118654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.854961, "energy": 84.147951, "activity_lines": [ 19.6912, 20.572236, 21.417152, 21.739058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.448, "volume": 692, "typical_volume": 5200.85, "trend": 21.985, "fair_value": 14.150128, "relative_strength": -12.978915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.743651, "energy": 83.216023, "activity_lines": [ 19.477534, 20.250691, 21.203238, 21.574774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.735001, "volume": 2387, "typical_volume": 4841.05, "trend": 21.997, "fair_value": 14.206776, "relative_strength": -5.87764, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.834127, "energy": 54.166394, "activity_lines": [ 20.151, 20.401818, 21.218619, 21.558645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }