{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1722b69a-22e5-4f08-84e3-1851520a78df", "symbol": "KLBN4", "name": "Klabin S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 61.098, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.79, "architecture_energy": 16.629, "architecture_maturity": 24.174, "architecture_confidence": 66.156, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.66, "rotation_up": 39.13, "upward_expansion": 28.74, "deceleration": 46.55, "rotation_down": 15.26, "downward_expansion": 46.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.568, 3.521455, 3.494286, 3.560065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.59, "trend_reference": 3.655, "distance_from_trend": -0.017784, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.582579, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.002072, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.121401, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.072351, "excess_performance": -0.015303, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017784, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005855, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.002072, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035884, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031214, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145118, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072351, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.069497, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17334900, "relative_activity": 0.919611, "balance": 1.069497, "dry_up": 0.821216, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036426, "annualized_volatility": 0.205148, "from_high_reference": -0.147268, "from_low_reference": 0.119345 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.655, "fair_value_reference": 3.582579, "structural_low": 3.24, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.024814, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.025132, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.125451, "worst_return": -0.084071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.067656, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.001018, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.189605, "worst_return": -0.108029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.08369, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.065734, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.186285, "worst_return": -0.11086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02559, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.059674, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013851, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044321, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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3.56628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.64, "volume": 12960400, "typical_volume": 18933220.0, "trend": 3.660333, "fair_value": 3.581489, "relative_strength": -5.19279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.90059, "energy": 13.749044, "activity_lines": [ 3.542, 3.498545, 3.489857, 3.564602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.59, "volume": 17334900, "typical_volume": 18850255.0, "trend": 3.655, "fair_value": 3.582579, "relative_strength": -3.121401, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.790326, "energy": 16.629036, "activity_lines": [ 3.568, 3.521455, 3.494286, 3.560065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }