{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "172848c3-c1fd-41fe-b08a-79730582f556",
    "symbol": "KMPR",
    "name": "Kemper Corporation",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -27.769,
    "architecture_energy": 14.731,
    "architecture_maturity": 27.402,
    "architecture_confidence": 63.502,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 56.97,
        "rotation_up": 27.66,
        "upward_expansion": 16.8,
        "deceleration": 46.19,
        "rotation_down": 20.62,
        "downward_expansion": 50.8
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        28.531333,
        28.090727,
        28.184527,
        28.894643
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 28.51,
    "trend_reference": 30.349321,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.060605,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 49.191454,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.420428,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -30.922582,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.15019,
    "excess_performance": -0.275815,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.060605,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.111708,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.420428,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.013518,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.309226,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.099185,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.15019,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.720362,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4535842,
      "relative_activity": 0.923767,
      "balance": 2.720362,
      "dry_up": 0.847987,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.085654,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.396024,
      "from_high_reference": -0.462797,
      "from_low_reference": 0.256501
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 30.349321,
      "fair_value_reference": 49.191454,
      "structural_low": 22.69,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.031864,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.067664,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.115094,
        "worst_return": -0.176846,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.131994,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.134681,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.106598,
        "worst_return": -0.198701,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.101308,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.006763,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.138706,
        "worst_return": -0.180621,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.025448,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.01633,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.277658,
        "worst_return": -0.194502,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-08-04",
        "end": "2023-09-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.171681,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-10-06",
        "end": "2023-12-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.138986,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2023-12-22",
        "end": "2024-01-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.163482,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-01-26",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.054945,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.063207,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.011522,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.115094,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-15",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.081043,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.013941,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.017839,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.103377,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.042644,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.510558,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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        "direction": -34.343512,
        "energy": 23.558352,
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          28.197333,
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          28.301484,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 28.81,
        "volume": 4260618,
        "typical_volume": 5392839.55,
        "trend": 31.042625,
        "fair_value": 49.414745,
        "relative_strength": -29.405735,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -28.904231,
        "energy": 23.296136,
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          28.592667,
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          28.275671,
          29.207558
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 28.38,
        "volume": 3859924,
        "typical_volume": 5361308.3,
        "trend": 30.697562,
        "fair_value": 49.294092,
        "relative_strength": -29.837858,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -27.382897,
        "energy": 18.438501,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.592667,
          27.811636,
          28.221461,
          29.035776
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 28.51,
        "volume": 4535842,
        "typical_volume": 4910159.35,
        "trend": 30.349321,
        "fair_value": 49.191454,
        "relative_strength": -30.922582,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -27.769015,
        "energy": 14.730757,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.531333,
          28.090727,
          28.184527,
          28.894643
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}