{ "ticker": { "uuid": "172f08dc-5a38-49fe-98ac-15829ad3a053", "symbol": "DB32", "name": "Xtrackers - MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.392, "architecture_energy": 22.939, "architecture_maturity": 26.177, "architecture_confidence": 64.054, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.62, "rotation_up": 40.81, "upward_expansion": 26.12, "deceleration": 40.24, "rotation_down": 21.88, "downward_expansion": 48.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.912, 57.268364, 57.517238, 57.934925 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 56.939999, "trend_reference": 58.061333, "distance_from_trend": -0.019313, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.14782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207691, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.715301, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01522, "excess_performance": -0.189466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019313, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039849, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207691, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11698, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127153, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174948, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01522, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.160759, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 444, "relative_activity": 0.488529, "balance": 2.160759, "dry_up": 0.32101, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032679, "annualized_volatility": 0.2103, "from_high_reference": -0.125883, "from_low_reference": 0.368257 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.061333, "fair_value_reference": 47.14782, "structural_low": 54.220001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.010806, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.02008, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.14444, "worst_return": -0.100729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020049, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.006751, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163325, "worst_return": -0.092251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.037565, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.02778, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101701, "worst_return": -0.086055, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.087332, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.029131, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.172748, "worst_return": 0.001915, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013203, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075531, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100729, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084067, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020661, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029469, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073296, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087408, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.101299, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045318, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.088923, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032724, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046452, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031962, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 43.525002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 41.564667, "fair_value": 38.771346, "relative_strength": 3.765742, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"2026-07-24", "close": 58.82, "volume": 538, "typical_volume": 1317.15, "trend": 57.602667, "fair_value": 46.987244, "relative_strength": -7.167834, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.335201, "energy": 20.76377, "activity_lines": [ 57.639334, 56.747091, 57.604953, 57.918387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.82, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1023.35, "trend": 57.901, "fair_value": 47.070481, "relative_strength": -7.184761, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.496758, "energy": 25.492661, "activity_lines": [ 58.207333, 57.191091, 57.654286, 57.996925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.939999, "volume": 444, "typical_volume": 908.85, "trend": 58.061333, "fair_value": 47.14782, "relative_strength": -12.715301, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.392073, "energy": 22.939073, "activity_lines": [ 57.912, 57.268364, 57.517238, 57.934925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }