{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17328d9c-9dc9-4694-bdd1-8dd0cf5c748f", "symbol": "EMXC", "name": "ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS EX CHINA ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.663, "architecture_energy": 16.847, "architecture_maturity": 66.284, "architecture_confidence": 81.249, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.27, "rotation_up": 17.77, "upward_expansion": 45.19, "deceleration": 87.86, "rotation_down": 34.91, "downward_expansion": 25.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 93.308, 95.232798, 95.251982, 92.540038 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 94.72, "trend_reference": 88.851454, "distance_from_trend": 0.066049, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 62.688078, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.510973, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.356769, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.164275, "excess_performance": -0.023179, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066049, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106219, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.510973, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14963, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.043568, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103131, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.164275, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.453441, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8934344, "relative_activity": 0.600352, "balance": 1.453441, "dry_up": 0.881514, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071249, "annualized_volatility": 0.331123, "from_high_reference": -0.115758, "from_low_reference": 0.548237 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 88.851454, "fair_value_reference": 62.688078, "structural_low": 74.653651, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.00334, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.00472, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.182044, "worst_return": -0.03174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.033674, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.035078, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.314968, "worst_return": -0.054711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.062757, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.080385, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.106771, "worst_return": 0.000673, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 91.89, "volume": 9384097, "typical_volume": 16167676.65, "trend": 87.612627, "fair_value": 62.109423, "relative_strength": 7.724453, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.776663, "energy": 22.265465, "activity_lines": [ 94.367333, 96.584258, 94.92023, 91.829673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.12, "volume": 17466132, "typical_volume": 15847982.7, "trend": 88.216714, "fair_value": 62.387947, "relative_strength": 7.018656, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.51885, "energy": 20.294143, "activity_lines": [ 93.14, 95.645463, 94.996994, 92.120471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 94.72, "volume": 8934344, "typical_volume": 14881845.7, "trend": 88.851454, "fair_value": 62.688078, "relative_strength": 4.356769, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.662528, "energy": 16.847157, "activity_lines": [ 93.308, 95.232798, 95.251982, 92.540038 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }