{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1734db10-ddb5-42d7-8bde-4cd0b990c692", "symbol": "600824", "name": "Shanghai Yimin Commercial Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.5, "architecture_energy": 43.376, "architecture_maturity": 92.606, "architecture_confidence": 63.445, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.87, "rotation_up": 26.29, "upward_expansion": 18.32, "deceleration": 66.97, "rotation_down": 41.38, "downward_expansion": 65.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.480667, 3.476727, 3.615, 3.761183 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.5, "trend_reference": 3.996, "distance_from_trend": -0.124124, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.923381, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107912, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.745931, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.250535, "excess_performance": -0.207332, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124124, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079263, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107912, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166717, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157459, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03035, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.250535, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.253708, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37990297, "relative_activity": 1.077307, "balance": 0.253708, "dry_up": 1.225822, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056703, "annualized_volatility": 0.219232, "from_high_reference": -0.351852, "from_low_reference": 0.057402 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.996, "fair_value_reference": 3.923381, "structural_low": 3.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.024996, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.006326, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.081081, "worst_return": -0.098795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.043887, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.004776, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.318182, "worst_return": -0.134328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018748, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.022052, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.39935, "worst_return": -0.069941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 3.456, 3.534727, 3.711429, 3.87914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.35, "volume": 44681951, "typical_volume": 37082911.95, "trend": 4.076667, "fair_value": 3.924591, "relative_strength": -17.551134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.007908, "energy": 65.699555, "activity_lines": [ 3.423333, 3.484727, 3.663476, 3.828731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.56, "volume": 38819771, "typical_volume": 36220308.35, "trend": 4.030333, "fair_value": 3.924686, "relative_strength": -12.367241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.998349, "energy": 53.398695, "activity_lines": [ 3.469333, 3.483455, 3.64019, 3.795398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.5, "volume": 37990297, "typical_volume": 35264142.85, "trend": 3.996, "fair_value": 3.923381, "relative_strength": -15.745931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.499946, "energy": 43.375737, "activity_lines": [ 3.480667, 3.476727, 3.615, 3.761183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }