{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17398ab6-5a3e-462a-9264-3e3984ad16f4", "symbol": "XOM", "name": "Exxon Mobil Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.672, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 24.462, "architecture_energy": 32.456, "architecture_maturity": 18.554, "architecture_confidence": 71.302, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.88, "rotation_up": 62.35, "upward_expansion": 46.37, "deceleration": 48.85, "rotation_down": 18.81, "downward_expansion": 11.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 2654.996663, 2582.054186, 2577.246969, 2604.011894 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2623.0, "trend_reference": 2603.164681, "distance_from_trend": 0.00762, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2170.503525, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208475, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.443336, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017851, "excess_performance": 0.072518, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00762, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052879, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208475, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032649, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.074433, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086376, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017851, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.329105, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14107, "relative_activity": 2.691662, "balance": 0.329105, "dry_up": 0.802519, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04792, "annualized_volatility": 0.351161, "from_high_reference": -0.179989, "from_low_reference": 0.339912 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2603.164681, "fair_value_reference": 2170.503525, "structural_low": 2380.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.021718, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.016684, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.081635, "worst_return": -0.071128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.109191, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.122213, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.14014, "worst_return": -0.130667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.204146, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.284169, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.346936, "worst_return": -0.067624, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2582.898749 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2745.0, "volume": 1358, "typical_volume": 5473.75, "trend": 2573.989022, "fair_value": 2160.411279, "relative_strength": 13.913656, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.957028, "energy": 17.760415, "activity_lines": [ 2592.768668, 2541.568737, 2573.570025, 2595.270747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2677.0, "volume": 478, "typical_volume": 4871.1, "trend": 2590.523201, "fair_value": 2165.785811, "relative_strength": 9.951452, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.808148, "energy": 26.179166, "activity_lines": [ 2642.415999, 2566.711461, 2577.674944, 2601.916617 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2623.0, "volume": 14107, "typical_volume": 5241.0, "trend": 2603.164681, "fair_value": 2170.503525, "relative_strength": 7.443336, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.462472, "energy": 32.455681, "activity_lines": [ 2654.996663, 2582.054186, 2577.246969, 2604.011894 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }