{ "ticker": { "uuid": "173c0855-ccf4-4434-b7cb-7c1b19b9cccd", "symbol": "SHN", "name": "Sunshine Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.525, "architecture_energy": 10.37, "architecture_maturity": 23.735, "architecture_confidence": 50.34, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.43, "rotation_up": 32.49, "upward_expansion": 18.86, "deceleration": 42.7, "rotation_down": 21.5, "downward_expansion": 55.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0308, 0.029818, 0.0299, 0.030761 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.034, "trend_reference": 0.032, "distance_from_trend": 0.0625, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.017391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.955031, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.331379, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.081081, "excess_performance": -0.144787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0625, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094641, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.955031, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110696, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.193314, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157043, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.081081, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.850907, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35565362, "relative_activity": 1.565369, "balance": 0.850907, "dry_up": 0.980309, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102941, "annualized_volatility": 0.690735, "from_high_reference": -0.291667, "from_low_reference": 2.090909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.032, "fair_value_reference": 0.017391, "structural_low": 0.024, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.235294, "directional_follow_through": 0.235294, "median_excess_return": -0.074665, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.157895, "worst_return": -0.307692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.008772, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.037794, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.461538, "worst_return": -0.354167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.313725, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.310873, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.777778, "worst_return": -0.458333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.10084, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.182444, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.416667, "worst_return": -0.54386, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.346154, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.909091, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.473684, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.028467, 0.029309, 0.029948, 0.031034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.027, "volume": 17141656, "typical_volume": 24563850.55, "trend": 0.0312, "fair_value": 0.017131, "relative_strength": 4.039716, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.955635, "energy": 59.683614, "activity_lines": [ 0.027933, 0.028818, 0.029519, 0.030783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.03, "volume": 21066977, "typical_volume": 24204460.75, "trend": 0.031433, "fair_value": 0.017208, "relative_strength": 14.318572, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.383078, "energy": 34.385513, "activity_lines": [ 0.028533, 0.028927, 0.029471, 0.030705 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.03, "volume": 15316905, "typical_volume": 22736498.25, "trend": 0.0317, "fair_value": 0.017282, "relative_strength": 10.32662, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.296688, "energy": 21.936749, "activity_lines": [ 0.029067, 0.029, 0.029481, 0.030613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.034, "volume": 35565362, "typical_volume": 22720113.3, "trend": 0.032, "fair_value": 0.017391, "relative_strength": 19.331379, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.5253, "energy": 10.369575, "activity_lines": [ 0.0308, 0.029818, 0.0299, 0.030761 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }