{ "ticker": { "uuid": "173fc5f0-f7a0-40ed-b7f1-91c406878fec", "symbol": "EX33", "name": "iShares (DE) I - iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.595, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.789, "architecture_energy": 34.722, "architecture_maturity": 41.995, "architecture_confidence": 45.07, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.75, "rotation_up": 61.25, "upward_expansion": 65.39, "deceleration": 67.3, "rotation_down": 9.35, "downward_expansion": 11.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.913334, 51.942728, 52.264572, 52.068387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 52.75, "trend_reference": 50.844667, "distance_from_trend": 0.037474, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.268141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.343328, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.862585, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.172483, "excess_performance": -0.001764, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037474, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07748, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.343328, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057838, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058626, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126991, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172483, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.97955, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.97955, "dry_up": 0.020707, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036908, "annualized_volatility": 0.224936, "from_high_reference": -0.054829, "from_low_reference": 0.410051 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.844667, "fair_value_reference": 39.268141, "structural_low": 44.695, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.012834, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.014971, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.106016, "worst_return": -0.068403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.006214, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.029664, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.150687, "worst_return": -0.074526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.060497, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.020542, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.323114, "worst_return": -0.096622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062713, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048644, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033497, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040892, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027805, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", 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"fair_value": 38.685449, "relative_strength": -10.294018, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.144664, "energy": 26.084075, "activity_lines": [ 50.203333, 51.381, 52.299048, 51.178882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 50.02, "volume": 3075, "typical_volume": 3868.9, "trend": 49.2265, "fair_value": 38.792308, "relative_strength": -8.460631, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.555016, "energy": 28.644441, "activity_lines": [ 49.887666, 50.963818, 52.096833, 51.250925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.630001, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 3534.75, "trend": 49.602334, "fair_value": 38.903141, "relative_strength": -3.691491, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.753087, "energy": 27.189863, "activity_lines": [ 50.331333, 50.941364, 52.033881, 51.405989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.810001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1891.0, "trend": 50.046167, "fair_value": 39.029327, "relative_strength": -1.076252, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.090586, "energy": 19.245447, "activity_lines": [ 51.563667, 51.338727, 52.163905, 51.677452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.810001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1465.25, "trend": 50.454334, "fair_value": 39.153526, "relative_strength": -1.091464, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.553275, "energy": 32.886158, "activity_lines": [ 52.595334, 51.731909, 52.270262, 51.92028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1207.3, "trend": 50.844667, "fair_value": 39.268141, "relative_strength": -5.862585, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.789076, "energy": 34.721897, "activity_lines": [ 52.913334, 51.942728, 52.264572, 52.068387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }