{ "ticker": { "uuid": "174159e2-d518-4c8e-a43e-5a2509dea6dc", "symbol": "42T", "name": "The Trendlines Group Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.043, "architecture_energy": 29.476, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.158, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.44, "rotation_up": 16.47, "upward_expansion": 2.79, "deceleration": 47.45, "rotation_down": 51.79, "downward_expansion": 76.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.057133, 0.0576, 0.058562, 0.058742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.057, "trend_reference": 0.06, "distance_from_trend": -0.05, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.059494, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.041915, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.316883, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.095238, "excess_performance": -0.250073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047619, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.041915, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02976, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143169, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.313378, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095238, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.730144, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11534800, "relative_activity": 1.213206, "balance": 0.730144, "dry_up": 0.560893, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08637, "annualized_volatility": 0.477762, "from_high_reference": -0.321429, "from_low_reference": 0.965517 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.06, "fair_value_reference": 0.059494, "structural_low": 0.047, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.004587, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.012527, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.793103, "worst_return": -0.121212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.028037, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.027941, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.727273, "worst_return": -0.120879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.031284, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049614, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.878788, "worst_return": -0.123711, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057471, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098901, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.662921, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096774, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096154, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.080645, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.1, "volume": 5518100, "typical_volume": 1237860.0, "trend": 0.096233, "fair_value": 0.098077, "relative_strength": 8.366172, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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0.057533, 0.058436, 0.058914, 0.05948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.058, "volume": 2995200, "typical_volume": 9383260.0, "trend": 0.0612, "fair_value": 0.060032, "relative_strength": -10.233743, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.169051, "energy": 33.069924, "activity_lines": [ 0.057533, 0.058236, 0.058886, 0.059247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.057, "volume": 2281200, "typical_volume": 9152435.0, "trend": 0.060633, "fair_value": 0.059756, "relative_strength": -12.832037, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.294137, "energy": 32.205686, "activity_lines": [ 0.057333, 0.057909, 0.058729, 0.058976 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.057, "volume": 11534800, "typical_volume": 9507700.0, "trend": 0.06, "fair_value": 0.059494, "relative_strength": -14.316883, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.043334, "energy": 29.476383, "activity_lines": [ 0.057133, 0.0576, 0.058562, 0.058742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }