{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17416217-604a-412b-8b7c-5f1903e1bc24", "symbol": "MARA", "name": "MARA Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 80.969, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -11.025, "architecture_energy": 23.804, "architecture_maturity": 48.42, "architecture_confidence": 70.536, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.23, "rotation_up": 14.38, "upward_expansion": 42.0, "deceleration": 83.79, "rotation_down": 47.56, "downward_expansion": 36.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 191.929331, 207.018, 214.072382, 204.09542 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 172.229996, "trend_reference": 191.209667, "distance_from_trend": -0.099261, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 285.193909, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.396095, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.64125, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.199457, "excess_performance": 0.254124, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099261, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020233, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.396095, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162364, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.256413, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045833, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.199457, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.426291, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 142048, "relative_activity": 0.795248, "balance": 0.426291, "dry_up": 0.978251, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.200439, "annualized_volatility": 0.719608, "from_high_reference": -0.599465, "from_low_reference": 0.47875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 191.209667, "fair_value_reference": 285.193909, "structural_low": 123.25, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.064371, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.110377, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.461791, "worst_return": -0.246107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.042561, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.023816, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099187, "worst_return": -0.426123, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.566288, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.44156, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.310495, "worst_return": -0.177919, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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232.254003, 233.471821, 218.411049, 203.623721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 186.490005, "volume": 165132, "typical_volume": 186011.15, "trend": 189.539, "fair_value": 286.583782, "relative_strength": -22.125926, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.702191, "energy": 16.002662, "activity_lines": [ 215.60467, 225.162185, 217.099812, 203.438259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 213.139999, "volume": 148566, "typical_volume": 185713.7, "trend": 190.912667, "fair_value": 286.158525, "relative_strength": -9.523188, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.501508, "energy": 22.095999, "activity_lines": [ 211.476002, 222.287093, 218.178716, 204.960904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 196.839996, "volume": 243199, "typical_volume": 181626.95, "trend": 191.572334, "fair_value": 285.680256, "relative_strength": -16.122061, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.774958, "energy": 16.235007, "activity_lines": [ 203.918666, 216.51382, 217.366097, 205.343313 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 172.229996, "volume": 142048, "typical_volume": 178621.1, "trend": 191.209667, "fair_value": 285.193909, "relative_strength": -25.64125, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.024817, "energy": 23.803908, "activity_lines": [ 191.929331, 207.018, 214.072382, 204.09542 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }