{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1742f7f1-3853-4f0b-847d-a1f842b5d72b", "symbol": "002969", "name": "Jiamei Food Packaging (Chuzhou) Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.263, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.933, "architecture_energy": 63.283, "architecture_maturity": 32.244, "architecture_confidence": 80.727, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.91, "rotation_up": 21.18, "upward_expansion": 11.85, "deceleration": 52.37, "rotation_down": 61.71, "downward_expansion": 85.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.35, 12.942, 15.448476, 17.635333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.87, "trend_reference": 19.717, "distance_from_trend": -0.296546, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.624161, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.09385, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.434893, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.401381, "excess_performance": -0.408781, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.296546, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.159687, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.09385, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.024181, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.044349, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.921503, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.401381, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.475151, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 371953291, "relative_activity": 1.596874, "balance": 0.475151, "dry_up": 1.242122, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.175365, "annualized_volatility": 0.739152, "from_high_reference": -0.586464, "from_low_reference": 3.164511 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.717, "fair_value_reference": 6.624161, "structural_low": 9.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.005, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.01633, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.212371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.007194, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.002535, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.158528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031648, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.055152, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.201465, "worst_return": -0.168449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040816, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.239436, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.005666, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033866, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 6.120548, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": 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"close": 10.42, "volume": 153634843, "typical_volume": 237730052.2, "trend": 19.589333, "fair_value": 6.50111, "relative_strength": -16.336348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.874969, "energy": 92.161558, "activity_lines": [ 11.826667, 13.464545, 16.533428, 18.47314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.41, "volume": 463369989, "typical_volume": 237737315.35, "trend": 19.676666, "fair_value": 6.558292, "relative_strength": -0.179987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.384407, "energy": 83.393177, "activity_lines": [ 11.794667, 13.009091, 15.887952, 18.009957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.87, "volume": 371953291, "typical_volume": 232925826.65, "trend": 19.717, "fair_value": 6.624161, "relative_strength": 4.434893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.932767, "energy": 63.282905, "activity_lines": [ 12.35, 12.942, 15.448476, 17.635333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }