{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17501b0b-b197-4682-9ebc-e2ed7b51eac7", "symbol": "BOLT", "name": "Bolt Biotherapeutics", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.319, "architecture_energy": 31.9, "architecture_maturity": 33.641, "architecture_confidence": 87.643, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.32, "rotation_up": 21.33, "upward_expansion": 3.58, "deceleration": 55.48, "rotation_down": 47.94, "downward_expansion": 76.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.021333, 4.066735, 4.322959, 4.442478 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.05, "trend_reference": 4.718503, "distance_from_trend": -0.141677, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.566272, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.649844, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.218487, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.298094, "excess_performance": -0.485547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141677, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06841, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.649844, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009321, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.292185, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009756, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.298094, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.317384, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78951, "relative_activity": 0.676613, "balance": 1.317384, "dry_up": 0.630121, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158395, "annualized_volatility": 0.6631, "from_high_reference": -0.437492, "from_low_reference": 0.08 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.718503, "fair_value_reference": 11.566272, "structural_low": 3.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.015251, "positive_rate": 0.371429, "directional_follow_through": 0.628571, "median_excess_return": -0.06353, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.258427, "worst_return": -0.204545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.180422, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.239035, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.15748, "worst_return": -0.28125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.163269, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.335995, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.108197, "worst_return": -0.422239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 11.986337, "relative_strength": -22.308864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.938251, "energy": 45.755811, "activity_lines": [ 4.127347, 4.290104, 4.480603, 4.612382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.83, "volume": 75426, "typical_volume": 121433.65, "trend": 4.837837, "fair_value": 11.844221, "relative_strength": -30.674427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.333057, "energy": 48.000776, "activity_lines": [ 4.03634, 4.175284, 4.414627, 4.544135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.99, "volume": 49425, "typical_volume": 118992.3, "trend": 4.777837, "fair_value": 11.701849, "relative_strength": -27.443523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.318059, "energy": 37.837383, "activity_lines": [ 4.009333, 4.106827, 4.366126, 4.489435 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.05, "volume": 78951, "typical_volume": 116685.55, "trend": 4.718503, "fair_value": 11.566272, "relative_strength": -29.218487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.319271, "energy": 31.90041, "activity_lines": [ 4.021333, 4.066735, 4.322959, 4.442478 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }